Analyst Nebojša Obrknežev said he expects that the U.S. Treasury Department’s Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) could approve a license for the continued operation of the Petroleum Industry of Serbia (NIS) as early as today, noting that Serbian President Aleksandar Vučić has provided clear guarantees that once the license is issued, the Russian side will have 50 days to find a partner.
Obrknežev told Tanjug he sees no reason for the U.S. State Department not to grant the license, given that sanctions have already been postponed several times and that initial sanctions against Rosneft in Germany have been suspended until April 29. “This is a small issue for both the U.S. and Russia, but a very significant one for Serbia. The state is doing everything to ensure that citizens do not feel the impact of this situation. If the license is not approved, the next 50 days will directly burden Serbia’s budget, not its citizens, which shows that the government has acted responsibly,” he said.
Asked about the potential consequences for Serbia’s energy security if OFAC’s decision is negative, Obrknežev said that secondary banking sanctions would then take effect — a “very serious blow” for all companies doing business with NIS.
Regarding fuel supplies, Obrknežev stressed that citizens should not worry because the state has operational and non-commercial reserves, noting that commodity reserves are secured until the second half of December.
“If the license is not approved, the question then arises: what happens to the company’s 13,500 employees and to all businesses connected to NIS? Would a new model be possible? We hear that MOL is negotiating with the Russians about acquiring a stake in NIS — whether that will be 11.3% or something else, we don’t know. One option is that the ‘Intelligence’ company could be sold to one buyer and Gazprom Neft to another. If no solution is found, Serbia will eventually have to become the owner,” he said.
Commenting on remarks by Gergely Gulyás, chief of staff to the Hungarian prime minister, about the possibility of MOL acquiring a stake in NIS, Obrknežev said this would be “very positive,” noting the excellent cooperation between Serbia and Hungary.
If MOL were to acquire a share in NIS, he said, it would lay the foundation for a strong and long-term energy partnership between the two neighboring countries. “The key question is what size stake MOL actually wants and with which company they will negotiate. I don’t believe MOL will acquire the full 56% package,” he added.
Obrknežev also said that while it would be beneficial for Abu Dhabi’s national oil company ADNOC — mentioned as another potential buyer of the Russian stake — to become the new owner, it would also be positive for NIS to return to Serbian ownership through a purchase, rather than through nationalization.
