Artificial intelligence has moved from technology-sector commentary into the assumptions behind Serbia’s monetary-policy forecasts.
The National Bank of Serbia’s August Inflation Report highlights a striking global macroeconomic tension: the negative supply shock from the Middle East energy conflict is being partly offset by a positive technological and investment shock associated with artificial intelligence.
Citing assessments by the World Bank and IMF, the NBS notes that the global economy has proved more resilient to the 2026 energy shock than initially expected, in part because of an accelerating global technology cycle driven by the development and adoption of AI tools.
The report even includes a dedicated chart comparing global trade in AI-related products with other trade flows and the PMI for global computer equipment. This is significant because central-bank inflation reports traditionally focus on oil, exchange rates, labour markets and fiscal policy. AI has now become material enough to appear among the external assumptions shaping Serbia’s growth outlook.
The NBS framing is more sophisticated than simply describing AI as a new source of productivity. The global effects differ by country. Economies positioned strongly in technology supply chains benefit from investment and demand, while countries more exposed to energy disruption face higher costs. The net impact therefore depends on the balance between technological exposure and geopolitical vulnerability.
The IMF projects global growth of 3.0% in 2026 and 3.4% in 2027, a performance that the NBS presents as more resilient than might have been expected given the scale of the energy shock.
The United States provides the clearest example. According to the report, the Federal Reserve assessed that US activity in Q2 remained solid, supported by consumption and investment in artificial-intelligence development. The Fed’s June forecast put 2026 growth at 2.2% and 2027 at 2.3%, while acknowledging uncertainty around both the Middle East conflict and the economic effects of AI investment.
This is the investment side of the AI story. Spending on data centres, semiconductors, servers, software and related infrastructure can increase aggregate demand and capital formation before productivity benefits are fully realised.
The price effects are less clear. The Fed, as cited by the NBS, is also monitoring the effects of artificial intelligence on consumer prices. Its June projections raised expected 2026 headline and core PCE inflation to 3.6% and 3.3%, respectively, although energy was also an important factor.
That is a useful corrective to the assumption that AI is automatically disinflationary. In the short term, large-scale investment can increase demand for electricity, specialised labour, computing equipment and construction. In the longer term, productivity gains may reduce costs. The timing of those effects is uncertain.
For Serbia, the significance is mostly indirect. The NBS report does not claim that domestic AI investment is a major driver of Serbian GDP, nor does it provide data supporting such a conclusion. The transmission is through the external environment.
A stronger global technology cycle can support European and global demand, improve manufacturing orders and reduce the probability that the energy shock pushes the world economy into a deeper slowdown. That in turn supports Serbia’s exports, investment confidence and capital flows.
The connection is particularly relevant because Serbia’s economy is becoming more integrated into manufacturing and technology-linked value chains. Automotive exports have expanded sharply, computers and electronic products are contributing to export growth, and ICT services remain one of the strongest categories of service exports.
The NBS reports that first-half exports of computers and electronic products were among the manufacturing categories contributing positively to overall export growth, while ICT services were one of the major drivers of service exports.
That does not turn Serbia into an AI-led economy. It does mean that a global investment boom in computing, electronics and digital services can affect the country through industrial demand, service exports and investor sentiment.
The energy side remains just as important. AI-related infrastructure is highly electricity-intensive, while Serbia itself is navigating CBAM, lower hydropower availability and a need for further renewable generation. The global technology boom and energy transition therefore interact rather than operate separately.
This tension is one of the most interesting aspects of the NBS report. The world economy is being pulled in opposite directions: higher energy costs and geopolitical fragmentation restrain supply and confidence, while AI-related investment supports demand, capital spending and potential productivity.
For monetary policymakers, that makes the external forecast harder. A technological boom can raise growth without necessarily lowering inflation immediately. It can support equity and investment markets while increasing demand for energy. It can improve productivity over time but also create sectoral bottlenecks during the investment phase.
The NBS does not attempt to quantify a specific AI contribution to Serbian GDP or inflation, and doing so would go beyond the evidence in the report. Its inclusion of AI in the macro framework is nevertheless notable.
Only a few years ago, an inflation report could treat technology mainly as a long-run productivity variable. In the August 2026 edition, AI appears as a current global cyclical force substantial enough to offset part of an energy and geopolitical shock.
That shift matters for Serbia because the country’s 2026-28 outlook depends heavily on what happens outside its borders. Weak euro-area growth, volatile energy prices and tighter global rates are the principal external risks. A stronger technology-investment cycle is one of the few major forces pushing in the opposite direction.
For the NBS, artificial intelligence has therefore ceased to be a distant structural theme. It has become part of the macroeconomic balance of risks shaping the path of Serbian growth, inflation and monetary policy.
