Serbia imported substantially larger physical volumes of mineral fuels during the first five months of 2026, benefiting from lower average prices but remaining exposed to a deep structural deficit in crude oil, refined products, gas and electricity.
The representative foreign-trade indices show mineral-fuel import unit values falling by 16.3% compared with January–May 2025. Physical import volume increased by 21.5%, but the decline in prices was sufficient to reduce the euro value of imports by 12.2%.
Export unit values rose by 1.7% and physical export volume by 2.9%, producing an export-value increase of 4.6%within the comparable product basket. The mineral-fuels terms-of-trade index improved by 21.5%.
The financial benefit was clear: Serbia obtained materially greater quantities of imported fuel at lower average cost. For industry, transport companies and households, this reduced the external price pressure that would otherwise have accompanied the increase in physical demand.
The broader customs data present a less comfortable picture. Energy exports fell by 39.7% to €347mn, while imports declined by only 5.6% to €2.02bn. The energy trade deficit widened from €1.57bn to €1.68bn.
The difference between the favourable mineral-fuels price indices and the deterioration in the broad energy balance reflects product composition. The price basket measures comparable mineral-fuel products, while the wider classification includes several energy categories whose export and import movements differed sharply.
Refined petroleum products were particularly weak. Exports from the manufacture of coke and refined petroleum products fell by 20.1% to €138mn, while imports increased by 48.8% to €575mn. The resulting deficit more than doubled from €214mn to €437mn.
Electricity, gas, steam and related energy trade also deteriorated. Exports fell by 47.7% to €208mn, while imports declined by 27.7% to €281mn. A surplus of approximately €8mn in the first five months of 2025 became a €74mn deficit in 2026.
These movements place NIS, the Pančevo refinery, EPS, Srbijagas and Serbia’s cross-border energy infrastructure at the centre of the external-account discussion. Each operates in a different segment, but their combined performance determines whether international energy-price relief translates into a smaller national deficit.
Serbia’s crude-oil supply depends heavily on imports transported through the JANAF pipeline system from the Adriatic. The Pančevo refinery converts imported crude into products for the domestic and regional markets. Any constraint on crude sourcing, pipeline access, refinery utilisation or international payments can quickly change the balance between product imports and domestic refining.
The rise in refined-product imports during early 2026 indicates that lower international fuel prices did not eliminate the need for foreign supply. Greater import dependence can be manageable during periods of liquid markets and falling prices, but it creates greater exposure to sanctions, shipping disruption, regional shortages and sudden increases in working-capital requirements.
Natural gas remains another structural dependency. Domestic production covers only part of consumption, leaving Srbijagas reliant on imported volumes, storage at Banatski Dvor and additional storage arrangements outside Serbia. The interconnector with Bulgaria has improved access to alternative sources, including gas arriving from Azerbaijan or through LNG-linked regional routes, but diversification still carries infrastructure, capacity and price constraints.
Electricity performance is more variable because it depends on hydrology, thermal-plant availability, demand and market prices. EPS can move between net export and net import positions within relatively short periods. The fall in electricity-related exports during early 2026 reduced one of the mechanisms through which Serbia can offset its petroleum and gas deficit.
The expansion of wind, solar and battery-storage capacity can reduce part of the import requirement, but the relationship is not automatic. Renewable generation lowers fuel consumption and wholesale-market exposure only when grid capacity, balancing resources and system flexibility are available. Curtailment, delayed connections and inadequate transmission investment can weaken the trade benefit of new generation.
The physical import increase of 21.5% in mineral fuels also carries a demand signal. Lower prices encouraged or accommodated higher consumption, inventory rebuilding or industrial use. From a trade perspective, import deflation improved the nominal account. From an energy-security perspective, greater physical dependence means that more of Serbia’s economic activity relies on uninterrupted external supply.
Industrial users gained a near-term cost advantage. Lower fuel and feedstock prices can improve margins in transport, chemicals, construction materials, agriculture and manufacturing. The effect is particularly valuable for companies that had been unable to pass previous energy-cost increases fully to customers.
The benefit can prove temporary. A reversal in oil or gas prices would affect a larger physical import base. The same quantity of imported energy that was affordable under falling unit values could create a rapid increase in the trade deficit and corporate working-capital needs when prices recover.
Currency movements add further exposure because most international energy contracts are denominated in dollars or linked to dollar-based benchmarks. Serbia’s euro and dinar revenue base can therefore face a cost increase even when commodity prices are stable.
The country’s energy deficit of approximately €1.68bn was equivalent to more than half of the total merchandise trade deficit in January–May. Automotive, mining and capital-goods surpluses compensated for much of this burden, but energy remained the largest persistent leak from the external account.
The 2026 price relief has given Serbian companies and public energy groups time to strengthen inventories, diversify supply and invest in domestic production. It has not changed the underlying structure. Serbia consumed more imported fuel at lower cost, while refined-product and electricity trade deteriorated. The country’s external resilience will continue to depend on refinery reliability, gas diversification, EPS generation performance and the speed at which new domestic energy capacity becomes operational.
