The future of Serbia’s oil company NIS has entered its most critical phase since the introduction of U.S. sanctions against the company. According to senior state officials, the coming hours will determine whether the United States will approve continued operation of NIS until the sale of Russia’s majority stake is completed, or whether the process will become more complicated, posing a risk to the stability of fuel supplies on the domestic market.
Officials and analysts have clearly identified the core of the problem: without an OFAC license, the refinery cannot secure fuel supplies, and the timeframe has become extremely tight. President Aleksandar Vučić said on Tuesday that he expects new information within the next 48 hours regarding the buyer of the 56.15 percent Russian stake in NIS. He explained that the sale is in its final phase but that Serbia cannot disclose any details until the process is formally completed. Vučić stressed that the country’s fuel supply remains stable due to reserves and state interventions, but he noted that approval from Washington is the decisive factor that will determine the company’s future. He added that Serbia is working “day and night” to resolve the issue, but the key step lies outside its control.
This marks the first official confirmation that the entire operation now depends on OFAC, the U.S. authority whose decision will determine whether the refinery in Pančevo can continue operating until the sale is completed.
Energy Minister Dubravka Đedović Handanović confirmed that the Russian shareholders have agreed to sell their stake and that the process is advancing on an hourly basis. She said that Serbia is participating in the final negotiations while respecting international procedures, including U.S. sanctions. According to her, Serbia is caught in a “power struggle between global players,” but its only objective is to maintain secure supply and ensure the refinery remains operational. She emphasized that the government is preparing alternatives, such as importing crude oil, gasoline and diesel, but that the refinery cannot operate at full capacity until the OFAC license issue is resolved. She stated that she expects a solution this week.
Former assistant minister for oil and gas Raša Kojčić explained that Serbia’s primary concern is not the identity or nationality of the buyer, but obtaining U.S. authorization for the transaction and a transitional license allowing NIS to continue operating. He noted that it is irrelevant whether the buyer comes from a friendly or Western country, as no solution is possible without OFAC approval. Kojčić described the current situation as Serbia’s most serious energy challenge since 2009, when gas supply through Ukraine was at risk.
The problem now centers on three main points. Russia has agreed to sell its stake, fulfilling a key U.S. requirement. Negotiations with a potential buyer have begun, though officials refuse to reveal the name until the sale is completed. The final outcome depends entirely on OFAC, which must grant temporary approval allowing the refinery to process crude oil and enabling continued transport through the JANAF pipeline, ensuring uninterrupted fuel supply for Serbia.
The government has already begun securing crude oil, gasoline and diesel to build reserves in case delays occur. Experts believe Serbia currently has sufficient fuel, but the long-term solution requires keeping the refinery operational.
According to statements from the government and the president, one of three outcomes is expected soon. The United States may grant temporary approval, allowing NIS to operate until the sale is finalized. Approval may be delayed, causing market uncertainty. In the worst-case scenario, approval could be denied, forcing Serbia into emergency fuel supply measures without refinery operations.
