Economic activity in Serbia began to weaken again in November 2020, after the collapse in April and after a slight recovery, according to the authors of the monthly “Macroeconomic Analysis and Trends” (MAT).
“Total industrial production in November fell by 1.4 percent year-on-year, and seasonally by two percent,” said Stojan Stamenkovic in the new issue of MAT.
He added that in the period January-November, the year-on-year growth of total industry production was maintained thanks to the growth of electricity production by 6.6 percent and mining by 7.2 percent, but it was reduced to 0.1 percent in November.
The total public debt of Serbia on September 30, 2020 amounted to 26.6 billion euros
He pointed out that the production of the processing industry in 2020 will be slightly lower than in 2019, because it fell by 3.8 percent year-on-year in November, which is the biggest drop after May.
In the period January-November, the processing industry, as he stated, is cumulatively smaller by 0.4 percent.
According to Stamenkovic, the trend of production of durable consumer goods is growing the fastest and is currently declining the slowest, which is 23.5 percent above the previous year’s average in November.
“According to the data of the Ministry of Finance, the total public debt of Serbia on September 30, 2020 amounted to 26.6 billion euros, which is 56.7 percent of the estimated gross domestic product (GDP),” said MAT editor Ivan Nikolic.
Of that, according to him, 11.2 billion euros or 23.9 percent of the estimated GDP or 42.2 percent of the total public debt refers to domestic debt, and 15.4 billion euros to external public debt, which is 32, 8 percent of estimated GDP or 57.8 percent of total public debt.
According to the data of the National Bank of Serbia (NBS), which differ from the data of the Ministry of Finance, the total foreign debt of Serbia, according to Nikolic, increased by 2.5 billion euros in the period January-September 2020 and at the end of September 2020 amounted to 30.7 billion euros, while in the same period its share in the estimated GDP increased to 66.4 percent compared to 61.5 percent at the end of 2019.
External debts significantly increased
Public sector external debt includes government debt, which includes Kosovo’s debt on loans concluded before the arrival of the KFOR mission, unregulated debt to Libya and clearing debt to the former Czechoslovakia, debt of the National Bank of Serbia, local governments, funds and agencies established by the state and the debt for which a state guarantee has been issued.
According to Nikolic, the external debt of the public sector increased by 1.3 billion euros to 15.2 billion euros during the first nine months of 2020, and that increase is primarily the result of borrowing based on the issue of long-term securities (Securities). ) countries.
According to him, the share of the public sector in the total external debt decreased to 48.8 percent compared to 49.1 percent at the end of 2019, while its share in the estimated GDP increased to 32.8 percent compared to 30, 2 percent at the end of 2019.
In the period January-September 2020, the external debt of the private sector increased by 1.2 billion euros, to 15.6 billion euros.
The share of the private sector in the total external debt was reduced to 50.2 percent in the first nine months of 2020, compared to 50.9 percent at the end of 2019.
“The external debt of banks in the period January-September 2020 increased by 447.4 million euros, to 3.9 billion euros, which increased the share of banks in the total external debt of the private sector to 24.7 percent compared to 23.7 percent at the end of 2019,” stated Nikolic.
In the same period, according to him, the company’s external debt increased by 732.5 million euros, to 11.7 billion euros.
In the first nine months of 2020, the external debt of individuals increased by 1.2 million euros, to 15.8 million euros, BiF reports.