Economists warn that ongoing road blockades and civil disobedience in Belgrade could cause significant economic losses, potentially amounting to millions of euros daily.
Students leading the protests have called for widespread civil disobedience, including taking sick leave, skipping work, and participating in road blockades to increase pressure on the government both politically and economically.
Veljko M. Mijušković from the University of Belgrade highlights that prolonged and frequent blockades disrupt the movement of labor, goods, and services, reducing productivity and raising operational costs—especially affecting sectors reliant on timely logistics like transport, trade, manufacturing, and logistics.
Delays in raw material supply chains can halt production lines, while longer commuting times reduce consumer spending, further slowing retail and hospitality sectors. Persistent blockades risk chronic inefficiency, local GDP decline, and lower tax revenues.
The most vulnerable sectors include transport, logistics, retail, hospitality, and manufacturing. Tourism also suffers, as images of blocked cities discourage foreign visitors. Although IT and other service sectors are less directly impacted, they lose efficiency when remote work is not feasible.
Social instability and frequent blockades damage the country’s image among foreign investors, who value political stability and a predictable business environment. Negative perceptions can lead to reduced investments or demands for higher returns, increasing the country’s cost of capital.
Mijušković notes that decreased economic activity reduces government revenues through lower VAT and corporate taxes, while increased security and public service costs strain the budget. Prolonged disruptions may force the government to revise the budget, increase debt, or cut public investments, slowing economic growth further.
Economist Aleksandar Stevanović agrees that the ongoing conflict will slow Serbia’s economy in the short term, especially if institutions are also impeded. However, he believes that once the conflict resolves, the largely healthy economy will recover quickly.
Stevanović also points out that many growth drivers from 2012 to 2025 are becoming unsustainable without continued political stability but sees potential for innovation and knowledge-based entrepreneurship to flourish moving forward.
In summary, while the current protests present significant economic challenges, there is cautious optimism about the country’s long-term recovery and growth prospects.
