The IMF expects Serbia’s economy to expand by 2.75 per cent in 2026, before growth strengthens to 4 per cent in 2027 as Expo-related construction, manufacturing exports, agriculture and energy investment accelerate. Inflation is forecast at 3.5 per cent this year and 4.5 per cent in 2027.
Renewed pressure on international oil and gas prices threatens that outlook. Serbia temporarily reduced fuel excise duties earlier in 2026, but the IMF has argued that the reductions should be withdrawn to prevent a permanent subsidy burden. Restoring the duties would strengthen revenue while passing more of the external energy shock to households, transport operators and manufacturers.
The government remains committed to keeping the fiscal deficit within 3 per cent of GDP in 2026 and 2027, alongside rules limiting public-sector wage and pension growth. That leaves less space for prolonged fuel support if Expo construction, energy infrastructure and other capital programmes exceed their budgets.
