Among the regions bordering the European Union, the Western Balkans remain far more connected to the EU than to any other global power. However, over the past decade China has moved into second place in terms of interconnectedness with the region, largely due to its strong ties with Serbia, according to a study by the Bertelsmann Foundation, the Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies (WIIW), and the European Centre for International Political Economy (ECIPE).
The newly published Geo-Economic Interconnectivity Index (GEOII), based on 43 indicators across trade, finance, and political strategy, measures the extent of economic linkages between the EU and its neighbors from 2010 to 2023, compared with their ties to the US, China, and Russia.
The study finds that the EU remains the leading economic power in its neighborhood, well ahead of its rivals, but is gradually losing ground, particularly in Turkey and the southern Mediterranean. China has steadily strengthened its presence since 2010 through high-tech trade and investment, while Russia continues to play an important role due to energy and agriculture. The US, by contrast, has been pulling back economically from the region.
The EU still exerts the strongest economic influence on the Western Balkans and the Eastern Neighborhood, especially in Ukraine and Moldova, which have grown closer to the EU due to war and hybrid threats from Russia. Yet China has made significant gains in the Western Balkans and southern Mediterranean, mainly through infrastructure projects and trade. Turkey remains closely tied to the EU, though both China and Russia have expanded their influence there through strategic investments and energy partnerships.
In the Western Balkans, EU ties have been surprisingly stable over the past decade, but China has surpassed both the US and Russia in recent years, thanks above all to its growing presence in Serbia. Russia’s and America’s roles have been on the decline.
The EU remains the most deeply interconnected actor with the Western Balkans in trade, finance, and politics. Still, in political strategy, Russia ranks second, ahead of China, while the EU’s role has weakened since peaking in 2018. Albania shows the strongest EU connectivity, followed by Bosnia and Herzegovina and North Macedonia, while Serbia and Montenegro are somewhat weaker. Kosovo ranks lowest, with unstable indicators and weaker data quality.
Serbia leads in connections with China, followed by Montenegro and North Macedonia, while China’s links with the other Western Balkan states remain modest.
The study highlights areas where the EU could strengthen its geo-economic role and warns against complacency. It argues that in today’s era of power politics, economic interdependence is no longer automatic but a strategic tool for stability and influence.
To maintain leadership, the EU must deepen economic ties with neighbors, modernize outdated trade agreements, and reduce non-tariff barriers, particularly in agriculture. It also needs to reform its enlargement policy by exploring gradual or partial integration, since the current process is seen as too slow and rigid.
The EU should invest more effectively in innovation, critical raw materials, and digital infrastructure across its neighborhood. Stronger market access arrangements, investment promotion, and balanced use of financial instruments are also key to reinforcing its influence.
