The European Commission forecasts that Serbia’s economy will continue to grow robustly but warns of domestic and international risks, including potential US sanctions on the Serbian Oil Industry (NIS).
In its Spring Economic Forecast published today, the Commission predicts Serbia’s GDP growth at 3.2% for 2025 and 3.8% for 2026. Serbia recorded a 3.9% growth in 2024.
The Commission expects Serbia’s growth to remain primarily driven by domestic demand, supported by rising investments and private consumption amid a strong labor market.
However, risks to growth include weak demand from Serbia’s main trading partners in the eurozone, especially Germany. Economic sentiment deteriorated steadily between January and April this year due to months of political unrest and student-led protests and blockades.
Strong foreign direct investments (FDI), a key driver of Serbia’s economic expansion, may suffer amid ongoing political uncertainty, while public investment implementation could be delayed.
“Global trade tensions and the threat of potential US sanctions against NIS present additional challenges for Serbia’s growth outlook,” the forecast states.
Among Western Balkan countries, Albania is expected to achieve the highest GDP growth in 2025 at 3.6%. Montenegro and North Macedonia are projected at 3.0%, and Bosnia and Herzegovina at 2.0%.
For 2026, the Commission forecasts growth of 3.5% for Albania, 3.2% for Montenegro, 2.3% for Bosnia and Herzegovina, and 3.1% for North Macedonia.
In the 27 EU member states, GDP growth is forecast at 1.1% in 2025 and 0.9% in the eurozone, remaining steady compared to 2024. Growth is expected to strengthen in 2026 to 1.5% in the EU and 1.4% in the eurozone.
The Commission highlights risks to EU growth including further fragmentation of global trade, which could reduce GDP growth and reignite inflationary pressures. Climate change-related disasters also pose risks.
On the positive side, further easing of trade tensions between the EU and the US, faster expansion of EU trade with other countries through new free trade agreements, increased defense spending, deeper integration of the single market, a stronger savings and investment union, and ambitious reforms simplifying procedures could all boost EU economic resilience.
