Economic experts agree that the fate of NIS has become the most dangerous point of geopolitical and economic pressure on Serbia. They warn that the country is caught between two major powers—Russia, which refuses to sell its majority stake in NIS, and the United States, which demands the complete withdrawal of Russian capital from Serbia’s energy sector. Appearing on the TV show Utisak nedelje on Nova S, they stressed that “whatever move Serbia makes will carry consequences.”
Ivan Ostojić, an expert in economics, technology and innovation and author of The Myth of the Economic Tiger, commented on the recent government session where officials announced that Serbia has oil reserves for only 30 more days.
“The message was clear: we heard that Serbia is essentially a colony and that our most strategic resource — energy — is controlled by foreign states. We also heard that we lack a strategy and that we are in an extremely difficult position. If we nationalize, Russia will be furious; if we don’t, we face American pressure and possible secondary sanctions that could shut down our financial institutions. Any move we make will have consequences,” Ostojić said.
He added that if he were asked for advice, the answer would be straightforward:
“We must protect the interests we failed to protect when we sold NIS. That means we will have to do what the Americans demand — a complete exit of Russian capital from Serbia’s energy system.”
Economist and Fiscal Council member Vladimir Vučković highlighted one positive message from the government meeting:
“If Russia cannot sell its share in NIS to a third party — and not just formally — Serbia will buy it. But the question remains: is the policy of ‘four chairs’ even possible anymore? It has lasted for more than 20 years, but now we see it no longer works,” Vučković said.
However, Radar’s economics editor Milan Ćulibrk disagreed:
“I did not understand that any decision has actually been made. We had 300 days to act and did nothing — now everything supposedly must be decided in seven days. The key problem is that Russia does not want to sell its majority stake to Serbia. If they had wanted to, they would have done it back in January. Now it has been openly stated that such talks never even took place,” Ćulibrk noted.
He also pointed to the broader context of Serbia–U.S. relations:
“Serbia gifted Donald Trump’s son-in-law the Generalštab complex — and will even clear it for him — hoping to win favor. In return, we received the highest tariffs in Europe (35 percent) and sanctions on NIS, a domestic company crucial for our economy. The government tried to bargain but has proven to be the worst possible negotiator,” he argued.
Ostojić explained the economic motives behind Russia’s refusal to sell:
“Serbia is one of the few countries in Europe where Russia still earns profit and can sell its oil. Through NIS, they also maintain significant political influence. That is why they are not offering this stake to anyone,” he said.
