Merchandise trade expanded strongly in the first five months of 2026, while the export-to-import coverage ratio improved substantially.
Serbia’s total merchandise trade reached USD 37.84 billion in January–May 2026, an increase of 12.5% over the same period of 2025. The key change was not merely the larger volume of trade: exports grew considerably faster than imports, reducing the external trade deficit.
Exports amounted to USD 17.17 billion in the first five months, up 16.6% year on year. Imports reached USD 20.66 billion, an increase of 9.3%. The gap between those growth rates reduced the deficit to USD 3.49 billion, down 16.5%, and lifted the export-to-import coverage ratio from 77.9% to 83.1%. This represents a more favourable trade structure: cross-border exchange is expanding while the gap between imports and exports is becoming smaller.
In May alone, total trade was worth USD 7.35 billion, 4.8% more than in May 2025. Exports rose by 6.8% to USD 3.31 billion, while imports increased by 3.2% to USD 4.03 billion. The monthly deficit of USD 720.4 million was 10.4% lower than a year earlier, and import coverage by exports improved from 79.4% to 82.1%. Seasonally adjusted data nevertheless point to short-term moderation: compared with April, exports fell by 5.1% and imports by 7.5%. This does not erase the year-on-year improvement, but it shows that May’s momentum was weaker than in the preceding month.
The geographical structure highlights Serbia’s strong reliance on European markets. Germany was the largest export destination in May, with USD 509.3 million, followed by Italy, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Hungary and Montenegro. China led on the import side with USD 609.1 million, followed by Germany, Italy, Türkiye and Romania. Particularly notable movements included a 43.1% rise in imports from Romania and a 25.4% increase in exports to Italy. Exports to Montenegro fell by 3.1%, while imports from Germany declined by 4.6%.
Regionally, Vojvodina accounted for the largest share of exports, at 30.2%, while the Belgrade Region accounted for 42.6% of imports. Šumadija and Western Serbia contributed 26.1% of exports and 16.7% of imports, and Southern and Eastern Serbia contributed 20.6% and 8.4%, respectively. This distribution reflects differences in regional production capacity, as well as the concentration of importers, distributors and company headquarters in Belgrade.
By activity, motor vehicles and trailers formed the largest share of May exports, at 15.2%, followed by electrical equipment, rubber and plastic products, food products, and fabricated metal products. Imports were led by chemicals, basic metals, machinery and equipment, electrical equipment, and motor vehicles. In January–May, manufacturing exports increased by 17.5% and manufacturing imports by 14.3%. Mining exports rose sharply by 47.3%, while mining imports fell by 7.6%. The overall assessment is favourable but conditional: the deficit is narrowing and exports are gaining strength, yet the durability of this improvement depends on external demand, manufacturing competitiveness and the import intensity of domestic production.
