Serbia is investing billions of euros in highways, railways, energy infrastructure and the flagship EXPO 2027 program, yet the country’s leading independent fiscal watchdog argues that public oversight of these investments is becoming increasingly difficult.
In its latest assessment of Serbia’s Fiscal Strategy, the Fiscal Council warns that transparency surrounding large state investment projects has deteriorated despite record levels of public capital spending. The institution argues that the government still lacks a comprehensive and easily accessible framework that would allow investors, taxpayers and financial markets to track the full cost, progress and economic rationale behind major infrastructure projects.
The criticism comes at a time when Serbia is executing one of the largest public investment cycles in its modern history. Roads, rail corridors, energy projects, urban infrastructure and EXPO-related developments are expected to absorb tens of billions of euros over the coming years. While high infrastructure spending has supported economic growth, the Fiscal Council argues that the visibility of those expenditures has not kept pace with their scale.
A particular concern relates to the government’s presentation of major capital projects. According to the Fiscal Council, the latest Fiscal Strategy includes only 42 large projects, compared with 52 projects listed in the revised strategy published in late 2025. Several major infrastructure developments have disappeared from the overview, reducing the usefulness of the document as a comprehensive investment planning tool.
The Council notes that projects such as the “Osmeh Vojvodine” expressway and the “Vožd Karađorđe” motorway are not included in the published investment table despite their strategic importance. As a result, the projects covered represent only about 23% of planned public investments between 2026 and 2029, making it difficult to assess the full scope of future government spending.
The debate becomes even more significant when examining project costs. Fiscal Council analysis indicates that on a sample of eight major road projects, total costs ultimately became approximately 75–80% higher than initially planned. Similar trends, according to the Council, are visible across a broader range of public infrastructure investments.
The most visible example remains EXPO 2027 and its associated infrastructure program. The Fiscal Council estimates that total spending related to EXPO and connected projects could ultimately reach approximately €3.4 billion. The watchdog notes that determining the exact fiscal cost is challenging because expenditures are distributed across multiple ministries, agencies and budget lines, while project scopes have changed repeatedly over time.
According to the analysis, around €2 billion had already been spent on EXPO-related activities and supporting infrastructure by the end of 2025. Based on current government plans, an additional €1.4 billion could be spent through 2027.
For investors and sovereign debt markets, the issue extends beyond transparency alone. Infrastructure cost overruns affect fiscal planning, borrowing requirements and public debt trajectories. Although the Fiscal Council considers Serbia’s public finances broadly stable, it warns that fiscal flexibility may be narrower than official projections suggest, particularly as large projects approach completion deadlines and financing requirements increase.
The concern is particularly relevant because Serbia continues to finance itself at borrowing costs significantly above the European Union average. The Fiscal Council notes that Serbia’s financing costs remain almost double the EU average despite maintaining a lower debt-to-GDP ratio than many member states. This means that project overruns or additional investment commitments can have a disproportionately large impact on future budget expenditures.
The broader message from the Fiscal Council is not opposition to infrastructure investment itself. Rather, it argues that a public investment program of this magnitude requires a correspondingly high level of disclosure regarding project costs, implementation timelines, procurement structures and revisions to original budgets. As Serbia accelerates preparations for EXPO 2027 while simultaneously pursuing highway, railway and energy investments under the government’s “Leap into the Future” development agenda, transparency is increasingly becoming a financial issue rather than merely an administrative one.
For international lenders, institutional investors and credit-rating agencies, the quality of fiscal governance is often as important as the volume of investment itself. The Fiscal Council’s latest warning suggests that Serbia’s next challenge may not be finding capital for infrastructure projects, but ensuring that the public and financial markets can clearly follow where that capital is being spent and how project costs evolve over time.
