Serbia’s fiscal data show why one month of improvement cannot be treated as a full fiscal signal. The NBS bulletin reports April public revenues of RSD 390.6bn and expenditures of RSD 383.8bn, producing a monthly surplus of RSD 6.7bn. The earlier months of 2026 were weaker, with January, February and March all showing deficits.
The April surplus is positive, but the broader fiscal story remains one of discipline under pressure. Serbia is financing infrastructure, public-sector wages, social obligations, energy-related needs and debt service in an environment where interest costs remain meaningful. The state still has fiscal space compared with more indebted European economies, but that space is not unlimited.
The quality of spending matters more than the monthly balance. Productive capital expenditure can improve logistics, energy security, industrial zones and export competitiveness. Consumption-oriented spending can support households but may also add to inflation if it is broad, permanent or politically timed. The difference between those two types of spending is central to Serbia’s macro outlook.
Election-cycle risk is another issue. Fiscal policy can easily become more expansionary when political pressure rises. Wage increases, transfers, subsidies and public-sector commitments may support short-term demand, but they can weaken fiscal credibility if not matched by productivity and revenue growth.
The state also has indirect fiscal exposure through public enterprises, guarantees and infrastructure-linked borrowing. That means the budget cannot be analysed separately from EPS, Srbijagas, transport companies, local governments and state-backed projects. Formal deficit data are only part of the picture.
Serbia’s fiscal position is not under immediate stress. The challenge is preserving credibility while continuing to invest. The April surplus shows the system can deliver discipline. The next test is whether that discipline survives rising spending pressures and whether public capital actually strengthens long-term growth.
