Serbia has temporarily reduced fuel excise duties and restricted petroleum exports as the government attempts to contain the domestic impact of higher international oil prices and renewed geopolitical risk.
For the period from 13 to 19 July 2026, the excise duty on petrol was reduced by 3.60 dinars to 64.80 dinars per litre, while the diesel levy was cut by 3.70 dinars to 66.64 dinars. Before the escalation of the Middle East conflict on 28 February, the duties stood at 72 dinars for petrol and 74.04 dinars for diesel.
Maximum retail prices for the period from 10 to 17 July were set at 220 dinars per litre for diesel and 196 dinars for petrol. Since the end of February, diesel has risen by 20 dinars per litre and petrol by 15 dinars, meaning that the latest excise reduction offsets only part of the increase already passed through to consumers.
The government has also prohibited exports of diesel, petrol and crude oil until 31 July. The measure prioritises domestic availability and attempts to protect fuel inventories, although it restricts regional trading flexibility and may affect companies involved in wholesale petroleum distribution.
The intervention is commercially important for agriculture, logistics, construction and road transport, where diesel remains a major operating expense. A company consuming 100,000 litres of diesel per month is now facing a gross monthly fuel bill of approximately 22 million dinars at the regulated retail ceiling. Even relatively small price movements therefore have an immediate effect on working capital and operating margins.
The fiscal burden is less visible but equally relevant. Lower excise duties reduce state revenue precisely when the government is financing infrastructure, energy-security measures and other support programmes. Temporary intervention can smooth a short-lived commodity-price shock, but repeated reductions make public revenue increasingly sensitive to oil-market volatility.
Price caps also distribute risk unevenly across the fuel chain. Retailers and wholesalers must manage the difference between regulated selling prices and changing import, refining, transport and inventory costs. When international prices move rapidly, government intervention can protect consumers while compressing commercial margins or creating pressure for further fiscal compensation.
The export restriction adds another layer. It supports domestic security of supply, but it also interrupts the normal allocation of petroleum products across neighbouring markets. Regional buyers may seek alternative supply, while Serbian operators lose part of their external sales flexibility.
The current measures provide households and businesses with a temporary buffer, but they do not remove Serbia’s structural exposure to imported crude, regional supply chains and geopolitical risk. The longer elevated oil prices persist, the more difficult it becomes to maintain the balance between affordable retail fuel, adequate market margins and predictable excise revenue.
