Serbian household borrowing accelerated sharply in the first quarter of 2026, supported by real wage growth, lower inflation and strong banking-sector liquidity. Household credit increased at an annual rate above 20%, making it the fastest-growing major component of bank lending.
Bank claims on households reached RSD2.02tn, compared with RSD1.94tn at the end of 2025 and RSD1.62tn at the end of 2024. In euro terms, the portfolio was worth approximately €16.55bn.
The average outstanding credit amount increased to RSD305,600 per inhabitant, equivalent to approximately €2,602. The average loan per borrower reached RSD1.16m, or around €9,873, compared with €7,946 in 2024.
The average approved loan rose to RSD788,800, equivalent to approximately €6,717. Borrowers are not simply taking more loans; the average size of each obligation is increasing.
Repayment capacity has been supported by real wage growth. Inflation moderated, allowing nominal salary increases to translate into higher purchasing power. This contributed to stronger retail activity and greater demand for housing, consumer and cash loans.
Currency risk has declined gradually. Foreign-currency and foreign-currency-indexed claims represented 43.5% of household credit, down from 43.8% at the end of 2025 and 72.4% in 2010.
The remaining foreign-currency share is still material. Most housing loans are euro-indexed, leaving borrowers exposed to changes in euro interest rates and the dinar-euro exchange rate.
Households collectively maintain a strong foreign-currency position. Foreign-currency deposits represented 66.2% of household deposits and were equivalent to 210.5% of foreign-currency household loans. The sector as a whole is a net euro saver, although the households holding deposits are not necessarily the same as those carrying mortgages.
Housing leverage is gradually increasing. The average loan-to-value ratio reached 64.8%, up from 63.8% in 2025, 62.6% in 2024 and 57.9% in 2022.
An average LTV below 65% still provides a substantial collateral cushion. The trend indicates that borrowers are using less equity and more debt to purchase increasingly expensive homes.
Property prices continued to rise in every region. Serbia’s national apartment-price index approached 190, compared with a base of 100 in the first quarter of 2019. Belgrade moved above 200, implying that nominal apartment prices have approximately doubled over the period.
The interaction between rising prices and credit creates the main risk. Higher property values justify larger loans, and easier credit supports further price appreciation. The cycle can remain stable while wages rise, employment is strong and rates fall, but it becomes vulnerable if affordability weakens.
Short-term credit represented only 1.7% of household lending, limiting immediate refinancing risk. Longer maturities lower monthly instalments but extend banks’ exposure to borrower income, interest-rate and collateral cycles.
The Serbian household sector is not yet displaying the high LTV ratios or widespread payment distress associated with a systemic mortgage bubble. The pace of credit growth, rising average debt and sustained property-price inflation nevertheless justify closer macroprudential monitoring before asset-quality indicators begin to deteriorate.
