The International Monetary Fund (IMF) projects a significant slowdown in Serbia’s economic growth in 2025. According to the IMF’s October “World Economic Outlook” report, Serbia’s GDP is expected to grow by 2.4% in 2025, down from 3.9% in 2024, placing it in the lower range compared to other former Yugoslav countries. This projected growth is lower than Montenegro (3.2%), Croatia (3.1%), and North Macedonia (3%), on par with Bosnia and Herzegovina, while only Slovenia shows slower growth at 1.1% due to its higher level of development.
Inflation in Serbia is forecasted at 4.6% for 2025, the highest among former Yugoslav republics, surpassing Montenegro (4.1%), Croatia (4.4%), Bosnia and Herzegovina and North Macedonia (both 3.5%), and Slovenia (2.5%). This rate is also higher than Albania’s projected 2.3%.
Regionally, Serbia’s growth of 2.4% is below that of Albania (3.4%) and Bulgaria (3%), but above Romania (1%). Despite being below the regional average, Serbia’s growth is higher than the Emerging and Developing Europe category, where the average projected growth is 1.8%. Serbia’s inflation, however, at 4.6%, remains well below the 13.5% average for this group.
A significant concern is Serbia’s current account deficit, projected at 5.3% of GDP, well above the group average of 1.1%. The IMF highlights ongoing global risks, including policy uncertainty, labor supply shocks, and fiscal vulnerabilities, recommending credible, predictable, and sustainable economic policies, restoring fiscal reserves, and ensuring public debt sustainability.
The projections come as Serbia participates in the IMF and World Bank Annual Meetings in Washington, attended by National Bank of Serbia Governor Jorgovanka Tabaković and Finance Minister Siniša Mali.
