The International Monetary Fund (IMF) predicts a significant slowdown in Serbia’s economic growth in 2025, placing the country in the lower tier compared to most former Yugoslav states. In its October report World Economic Outlook, the IMF projects Serbia’s GDP growth at 2.4% in 2025, down sharply from 3.9% in 2024.
When compared to the ex-Yugoslav region, Serbia’s projected growth of 2.4% is lower than Montenegro (3.2%), Croatia (3.1%), and North Macedonia (3.0%). It aligns with Bosnia and Herzegovina, while only Slovenia is expected to grow more slowly at 1.1%, albeit from a much higher level of economic development.
Serbia is also projected to have the highest inflation rate in the region at 4.6% in 2025, surpassing Montenegro (4.1%), Croatia (4.4%), Bosnia and Herzegovina and North Macedonia (both 3.5%), and Slovenia (2.5%). Compared to the broader Western Balkans group, Serbia’s inflation is at the top, even when excluding Slovenia and Croatia and including Albania. Its projected inflation rate exceeds Montenegro’s by 0.5 percentage points and is more than double Albania’s forecast of 2.3%.
In a wider regional context including Albania, Romania, and Bulgaria, Serbia’s projected growth of 2.4% is lower than Albania (3.4%) and Bulgaria (3.0%), but above Romania (1.0%). Despite being below the regional average, Serbia’s growth surpasses the IMF’s projected average of 1.8% for its category “Emerging and Developing Europe.” Inflation in this group averages 13.5%, meaning Serbia’s 4.6% remains well below the regional average. However, Serbia faces a relatively high current account deficit of 5.3% of GDP, compared to the group’s average of 1.1%.
The IMF highlights global risks such as “prolonged policy uncertainty, labor supply shocks, and fiscal vulnerabilities.” It recommends that Serbia implement credible, predictable, and sustainable economic policies to restore confidence, rebuild fiscal reserves, and ensure public debt sustainability.
The projections were presented during the IMF and World Bank Annual Meetings in Washington, attended by National Bank of Serbia Governor Jorgovanka Tabaković and, starting today, Finance Minister Siniša Mali.
