The International Monetary Fund (IMF) mission announced that it has reached an agreement with Serbian authorities under the second review of the ongoing Policy Coordination Instrument (PCI), pending approval by the IMF Executive Board.
The IMF noted that Serbia’s economic growth has slowed due to global trade tensions, domestic protests, political uncertainty, and U.S. sanctions on the oil company NIS. Despite these challenges, Serbia’s economy remains resilient, supported by strong foreign reserves, a stable banking sector, and low public debt.
Authorities are committed to keeping the fiscal deficit below 3% of GDP between 2025 and 2027 and to maintaining wage and pension discipline in line with fiscal rules. The IMF highlighted ongoing fiscal and structural reforms, as well as progress in the energy sector.
The IMF projects Serbia’s GDP growth at 2.1% in 2025, constrained by lower public investment, weaker foreign direct investment inflows, and reduced consumption. Growth is expected to recover to around 3% in 2026, driven by higher household income, favorable credit conditions, new export capacities, and more stable energy supply.
Inflation is expected to rise moderately in 2026, while the current account deficit could widen to about 6% of GDP before gradually declining. The IMF warned that delays in resolving the NIS sanctions issue or rising domestic tensions could weaken activity but noted Serbia’s strong fiscal buffers and robust banking system as key safeguards.
The mission commended Serbia’s efforts to improve fiscal transparency, enhance public investment management, and reform state-owned energy companies to ensure financial sustainability. It also welcomed the government’s plan to lift price and margin controls by the end of February and its determination to secure stable oil supplies despite ongoing sanctions on NIS.
