The war in Ukraine has significantly impacted Serbia, particularly through the arrival of around 110,000 Russian immigrants, up from approximately 10,000 before the war. This migration, primarily due to fear of mobilization and Western sanctions, has led to an increased demand for real estate, creation of a new market, and a new social ecosystem. Russians have established a microcosm in Serbia, with businesses, cafes, and services catering to their community.
A significant number of Russians work in the IT sector, while others have opened businesses such as bars, restaurants and small enterprises, contributing to the local economy. Many of these migrants appreciate Serbia’s lack of sanctions against Russia, enabling them to continue working with the West. They also benefit from lower taxes and favorable real estate conditions in Serbia.
The impact on Serbia’s economy is notable, particularly in real estate, with Russian demand driving up rental prices. While many Russians are considering returning to Russia if sanctions are lifted and peace is restored, a considerable number plan to stay in Serbia long-term due to the favorable economic and political conditions. Their continued presence is expected to contribute to the Serbian economy, despite potential losses in VAT revenue if they eventually leave.
Experts note that the departure of Russians could slightly affect the economy, but Serbia is benefiting from their business activities, tax contributions, and consumer spending. Some Russians, especially those in the IT sector, are likely to remain in Serbia due to political stability, tax advantages, and better living conditions compared to Russia. The long-term impact on Serbia’s economy will depend on the pace of potential repatriation and the resolution of sanctions.
