The May figures show modest overall growth, led by capital goods, while energy and durable consumer goods weakened markedly.
Serbia’s industrial production was 0.3% higher in May 2026 than in May 2025, while output in the first five months of the year increased by 0.6%. This modest aggregate gain, however, conceals wide differences across industrial sections and product groups.
Manufacturing provided the strongest support to the overall result, with production rising by 1.4% year on year in May. Mining recorded an even higher increase of 3.2%, while electricity, gas, steam and air-conditioning supply fell by 8.6%. The headline result therefore should not be read as broad-based acceleration: two sections expanded, but the energy component exerted a substantial drag on the total index.
The breakdown by economic purpose adds another layer to the picture. Capital goods output increased by 5.9% compared with May 2025, while energy production rose by 1.2%. In contrast, intermediate goods excluding energy declined by 0.5%, non-durable consumer goods by 0.9%, and durable consumer goods by as much as 12.8%. Stronger capital-goods production may point to firmer activity in segments linked to equipment and investment demand. The sharp fall in durable consumer goods, however, signals weakness in an area that is especially sensitive to purchasing power and households’ ability to postpone major purchases.
Measured against the 2025 average, total industrial production in May was 0.9% lower. Manufacturing output was nevertheless 5.2% above that average, while mining and energy remained below it. This confirms that manufacturing currently accounts for much of the sector’s resilience, but it also shows that the aggregate result is still exposed to fluctuations in mining and electricity generation.
Inventories provide an important additional signal. The average stock of industrial products in January–May 2026 was 12.1% higher than in the same period of 2025; in mining, it was 50.2% higher. Rising stocks may precede stronger sales if firms are preparing for future demand, but they may also indicate slower product turnover. The inventory figure is therefore not conclusive on its own and should be assessed alongside new orders, exports and turnover.
Industrial turnover in May stood at 111.4, with the 2025 average set at 100. Turnover on the domestic market was 6.9% above the 2025 average, while non-domestic turnover was 16.4% above it. The stronger foreign-market reading is consistent with the rapid rise in merchandise exports and underlines the importance of external demand for Serbian industry. The central conclusion is twofold: industry remains slightly in positive territory, but growth is concentrated. A more durable expansion would require the recovery to spread to energy, intermediate goods and consumer-oriented production, together with evidence that higher inventories are being converted into sales.
