Supported byOwner's Engineer
Clarion Energy banner

Inflation in Serbia remained unchanged in August compared to July

Supported byspot_img

 

After two months of deflation, inflation remained unchanged in August compared to July. The key contributors to the monthly inflation development came from: communication (+5.4% mom) driven by increase in the fixed telephony prices in early August and recreation and culture (+2.7% mom) being triggered by schoolbooks prices increase. On the other side, the largest prices fall was evidenced with food and non-alcohol beverages (-1.3% mom) due to seasonally lower fruits and vegetables prices. Finally, prices of goods fell by 0.4% mom, while prices of services increased by 1.4% mom. CPI came in August 2010 August 2011 to 10.5% yoy, being largely above the NBS targeted range for August 2011 (5.0%+/-1.7%). The key growth contributors in annual terms were: food and beverages (+12.8% yoy) with 37.8% share in the CPI basket, followed by alcoholic beverages and tobacco (+15.2% yoy) with 4.9% weight in CPI basket and housing, water, electricity, gas and other fuels (+12.5% mom) having 16.3% share in the CPI basket. In the period December 2010 to August 2011 CPI came to 6.2% ytd.

Supported by

Analyst assessment: The latest decision of the Executive Board (EB) of the NBS on cutting the key interest rate by 50 bps, from 11.75% to 11.25% was flavoured by the inflationary pressures further easing, which prove to be truth according to the Augusts inflation news flow. The fact is that inflation slackening is being carried by the good agricultural harvest, while there is a still minor threat from the regulated market segment i.e. repeated statements from the natural gas manufacturer for the gas prices increase (+15%). We say minor, as we reckon the government will refuse the request provoked by pre-election year sentiment. Given all previously mentioned plus the fact that already weak aggregate demand is to wane even more in the coming period prompted by the revived sovereign debt crises in the Eurozone, which is why IMF revised downwards countrys GDP forecast to 2% down from 3% in 2011, we are putting under revision our CPI forecast for 2011 (i.e. currently 9.5% eop) with higher weight for the downwards revision.

Source balkans.com

 

Supported by

RELATED ARTICLES

Supported byClarion Energy
spot_img
Serbia Energy News
error: Content is protected !!