Serbia’s economic recovery is becoming increasingly divided between large companies with access to finance, export markets and modern technology and smaller businesses operating with lower capacity utilisation and thinner liquidity buffers.
Large companies achieved average capacity utilisation of 79% in the first quarter of 2026. Microenterprises operated at approximately 66%, leaving a gap of 13 percentage points. Average utilisation across the surveyed corporate sector stood at 72%.
The disparity is visible in turnover. Around 25% of large companies increased revenue during Q1, compared with approximately 17% of micro and small enterprises. For the second quarter, 58% of large companies expect higher turnover. The corresponding proportion is 47% among medium-sized businesses, 41% among small companies and 37%among microenterprises.
Larger businesses typically have more diversified customer bases and are better positioned to absorb short-term demand shocks. Export-oriented groups such as Zijin Mining, HBIS Serbia, Michelin, Bosch, ZF, Brose, Linglong Tire and internationally integrated automotive suppliers operate within multinational supply chains that provide greater order visibility than the domestic market can offer to smaller firms.
Scale also determines access to working capital. Approximately 92% of large companies reported sufficient funds for optimal operations. The ratio fell to 84% among medium-sized businesses, 76% for small companies and 70% for microenterprises. Only 8% of large companies described themselves as underfunded, compared with 30% of microenterprises.
The banking data show that finance is available, but access is not uniform. Investment loans increased by 14.5% year on year in May, while working-capital lending rose by 11.2%. Banks nevertheless reported slightly tighter corporate credit standards during Q1, partly reflecting funding costs and perceived risk. Larger borrowers can usually offer stronger collateral, longer financial histories, audited reporting and contractual evidence of future cash flows.
Micro and small companies often depend on the owner’s capital, overdrafts, short-term loans and customer advances. They are more exposed to late payments and frequently lack the balance-sheet strength to invest in automation, energy efficiency or certification. This creates a circular disadvantage: lower productivity weakens margins, weaker margins restrict investment and limited investment prevents productivity from catching up.
Export capacity is similarly concentrated. Only 29% of microenterprises in the survey exported goods or services. Among microexporters, just 12% increased exports during the first quarter. Approximately one-third of large exporters achieved growth.
Foreign buyers increasingly demand evidence that smaller Serbian suppliers may struggle to produce. Quality certifications, product traceability, cybersecurity controls, carbon-emissions data and audited environmental systems are becoming part of ordinary supplier qualification. The cost of meeting these requirements can be material for a small manufacturer, even when the underlying technology is not complex.
The public investment cycle may reinforce the divide. Expo-related construction, transport infrastructure, energy projects and municipal investments create opportunities for domestic contractors and suppliers, but large contractors are usually the direct contractual beneficiaries. Smaller firms participate as subcontractors, often bearing execution costs before receiving payment from the principal contractor.
A stronger SME financing model would require more than general credit growth. Receivables financing, supply-chain finance, equipment leasing, credit guarantees and investment grants tied to productivity could reduce the structural disadvantage. Supplier-development programmes linked to multinational manufacturers could provide both long-term orders and technical assistance.
Without stronger transmission of investment into domestic SMEs, Serbia risks developing an economy in which large foreign-owned and state-supported companies operate at relatively high capacity while locally owned suppliers remain undercapitalised. The survey’s second-quarter optimism is real, but the ability to convert stronger demand into lasting productivity remains concentrated near the top of the corporate structure.
