The proposed transfer of 56.15 per cent of NIS to Hungary’s MOL remains Serbia’s most consequential corporate transaction. The stake held by Gazprom Neft and Gazprom has been valued at approximately €900 million–€1 billion, but completion still requires approval from the US Treasury’s Office of Foreign Assets Control.
Serbia has negotiated a separate shareholders’ agreement with MOL and plans to acquire an additional 5 per cent of NIS, increasing the state’s interest from 29.9 per cent to roughly 34.9 per cent. The arrangement would give Belgrade stronger board representation and additional rights over decisions affecting domestic energy security.
MOL has undertaken to maintain operations at the Pančevo refinery, whose maximum processing capacity is about 4.8 million tonnes annually, at no less than its recent historical average. That commitment matters because NIS supplies approximately 80 per cent of Serbia’s fuel market and depends heavily on crude delivered through Croatia’s JANAF pipeline.
For Serbia, regulatory clearance is more important than the transaction price. Any interruption to OFAC licensing could disrupt crude imports, payment services and refinery operations before ownership formally changes. For MOL, the acquisition would add a strategically located refinery and retail network, but also expose the group to Serbian price controls, political oversight and potentially demanding competition remedies.
