Serbia’s internal trade sector delivered another quarter of solid growth at the start of 2026, confirming that domestic consumption remains one of the principal engines of economic activity despite weaker performance in construction and parts of industry.
Data for the first quarter show continued expansion across wholesale and retail trade, reinforcing broader economic indicators that point to resilient household spending, stable employment and sustained demand throughout the economy.
The strongest performance was recorded in wholesale trade. Turnover in wholesale activities excluding motor vehicles and motorcycles increased by 7.6% in current prices and 5.7% in real terms compared with the first quarter of 2025. The figures indicate that business demand, inventory replenishment and distribution activity remain healthy despite a more uncertain European economic environment.
Retail trade also continued to expand at a robust pace. Retail turnover excluding motor vehicles and motorcycles increased by 9.3% in current prices and 8.6% in real terms, highlighting the strength of consumer spending and rising household purchasing power.
The results align closely with Serbia’s first-quarter GDP data, which showed household consumption growing by 4.8% year-on-year and contributing significantly to overall economic growth of 3.2%.
Motor vehicle and motorcycle trade produced a more mixed picture. Nominal turnover increased by 2.0%, but after adjusting for inflation, real turnover declined by 1.5%. The divergence suggests that consumers remain more cautious regarding higher-value purchases despite broader spending growth across the economy.
The structure of trade provides valuable insight into current consumption patterns.
Within motor vehicle trade, sales of vehicles accounted for 53.3% of total turnover, while vehicle parts and accessories represented 34.9%. Motorcycle-related activities remain a relatively small segment, accounting for 2.4% of total turnover, although this category recorded the strongest annual growth, increasing by more than 50% compared with the same period last year.
In wholesale trade, food products, beverages and tobacco remained the largest category, accounting for 25.5% of total turnover. Pharmaceutical, cosmetic and personal care products represented 17.7%, while fuels accounted for 13.4%.
One of the most notable developments was the performance of chemical products, where wholesale turnover surged by 28.4% year-on-year. The increase may reflect stronger industrial demand, agricultural inputs and broader activity across manufacturing and infrastructure sectors.
Machinery and equipment sales also recorded growth of 10.7%, suggesting that investment activity within parts of the private sector remains relatively stable despite weaker overall capital expenditure growth at the national level.
The retail sector continues to be dominated by essential consumer goods. Food products and alcoholic beverages represented approximately 35.7% of total retail turnover, highlighting the central role of consumer spending in supporting overall economic activity.
Regional data reveal relatively balanced growth across the country. Both Northern and Southern Serbia recorded increases in wholesale and retail turnover, although Northern Serbia continued to account for the larger share of overall activity due to its concentration of population, logistics infrastructure and industrial production.
For investors, the trade data provide important confirmation that domestic demand remains one of Serbia’s strongest economic fundamentals.
While construction activity contracted by 5.1% in the first quarter and industrial output remained under pressure, retail and wholesale activity continue to expand at rates significantly above overall GDP growth. This divergence suggests that household spending and services are increasingly offsetting weakness in more cyclical sectors.
The figures are particularly relevant for consumer-focused industries including retail chains, logistics operators, e-commerce providers, food producers, distributors and commercial real estate developers. Rising turnover levels support demand for warehousing, distribution centers, retail parks and modern logistics infrastructure.
The wholesale sector’s strong performance also reflects Serbia’s growing role as a regional distribution hub. Investments in transport infrastructure, highways, rail corridors and logistics facilities are increasingly supporting trade flows between Central Europe, Southeast Europe and the Western Balkans.
The broader picture emerging from the first quarter is one of an economy increasingly driven by domestic demand. Consumer spending, services, trade and logistics continue to outperform traditional industrial sectors, creating a more diversified growth profile than in previous years.
As long as employment remains strong and wage growth continues to support household purchasing power, retail and wholesale trade are likely to remain among the most important contributors to Serbia’s economic expansion throughout 2026. The sector’s performance during the first quarter suggests that domestic demand remains sufficiently robust to support growth even as external conditions across Europe remain uneven.
