Serbia’s retail sector returned to moderate growth in February 2026, signaling a stabilisation in household consumption after a volatile start to the year.
According to data from the Statistical Office, total retail trade turnover increased by 4.8% nominallyand 4.6% in real terms year-on-year, confirming that growth was not driven solely by price effects but by actual volume expansion.
Consumption recovers after January weakness
The February rebound follows a softer January period, when retail activity showed significant monthly contraction. The latest figures suggest that consumer demand is regaining momentum, albeit at a measured pace.
On a month-on-month basis, however, retail turnover declined compared to the 2025 average by around 5.1–5.3% in real and nominal terms, indicating that the recovery remains partial and still below last year’s average consumption levels.
This dual dynamic—year-on-year growth but below-average monthly levels—points to a normalisation phase rather than a full demand expansion cycle.
Real growth confirms underlying demand
The key signal in the February data is the 4.6% real increase, which strips out inflation and reflects actual purchasing activity.
In the current macro context—characterised by still-elevated interest rates and cautious household spending—this level of growth suggests:
• Stable wage-driven consumption
• Gradual recovery in discretionary spending
• Continued resilience of retail demand despite broader industrial slowdown
This aligns with recent labour market data showing real wage growth above 7% year-on-year, supporting purchasing power and consumption capacity.
Retail as a counterbalance to industrial weakness
The strengthening of retail turnover stands in contrast to weaker signals from the industrial sector, where production has shown stagnation or slight contraction in early 2026.
This divergence highlights a two-speed economy:
• Domestic consumption (retail) → stabilising and growing
• Industrial output → under pressure from external demand and energy dynamics
Retail therefore remains a key stabiliser of Serbia’s GDP structure, where private consumption accounts for a significant share of economic activity.
Structural context: Moderate but not accelerating growth
Despite the February rebound, the broader trend suggests that Serbia’s retail sector is not entering a high-growth phase.
For context, total retail trade in 2025 grew by 4.2% in real terms, indicating that current performance remains broadly in line with medium-term trends rather than exceeding them.
The February figure of 4.6% real growth therefore represents:
• A continuation of steady consumption
• Not a breakout expansion
Outlook: Consumption stable, but sensitive to external conditions
Looking ahead, the trajectory of retail trade in Serbia will depend on several key variables:
• Wage growth sustainability
• Inflation trends and purchasing power
• Interest rate environment and credit conditions
• External shocks affecting energy and import prices
The February data suggests that households remain relatively resilient, but not immune to macro pressures.
What emerges is a consumption profile that is stable, gradually recovering, and still below peak expansion levels—providing support to the economy, but without generating strong acceleration.
