Rio Tinto awaits Serbia election as Jadar lithium project enters critical year

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Rio Tinto had invested around €640 million in Serbia by the end of 2025, but its Jadar lithium project has effectively entered care-and-maintenance mode as the company awaits a political decision on its future.

Financial statements from Serbian subsidiary Rio Sava Exploration show that the company has almost halted new investment, reduced financial support from its parent and moved to settle existing liabilities.

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The election could help determine whether Rio Tinto revives the project, seeks a buyer or considers legal action to protect its investment. The timetable is tightening because some permits are due to expire in the first half of 2027.

Investment falls sharply

Rio Sava’s capital expenditure fell from RSD 2.25 billion to just RSD 6.9 million, or less than €60,000, in 2025.

Funding from the parent company dropped from RSD 10.5 billion in 2024 to RSD 4.1 billion last year. Cash reserves declined from RSD 2.74 billion to RSD 548.5 million, or about €4.7 million.

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The company paid more than RSD 5 billion to domestic and foreign suppliers. Payments to foreign suppliers increased twelvefold, from RSD 246 million to around RSD 3 billion.

Staff costs rose to RSD 1.52 billion, driven largely by severance payments. Rio Sava reported an operating loss of RSD 5.85 billion, or about €50 million.

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Losses are expected for a development-stage company without production revenue, but the figures confirm that Jadar has shifted from active development into corporate hibernation.

More than €600 million already spent

Rio Tinto has injected about €200 million into its Serbian subsidiary through share capital, while additional capital reserves used to finance exploration and development reached roughly €436 million.

Total funding therefore stands at around €640 million.

Accumulated losses have risen to approximately €604 million, reflecting spending on exploration, studies, drilling, consultants, legal services, salaries and community programmes. Costs paid directly by Rio Tinto’s headquarters outside Serbia are not included and could push the total investment higher.

Project-related assets remaining in Serbia are valued at around €36 million. They include land and properties in the Jadar Valley worth about €16.2 million, as well as intellectual property and processing technology valued at approximately €19.4 million.

Those assets retain their full economic value only if the mine proceeds. If the project is abandoned, Rio Tinto could face writedowns or seek to sell the project to another investor.

Balance sheet prepared for a decision

Rio Sava has eliminated its long-term liabilities, while its remaining obligations of about RSD 1.21 billion are classified as short term. At the end of 2025, the company held enough cash to cover roughly half of those liabilities and about one month of operating costs.

The immediate liquidity risk remains limited because Rio Tinto continues to support its subsidiary. The group has allocated another €24 million for its Serbian operations in 2026.

Rio Tinto originally planned to invest $2.4 billion in Jadar, but the investment cycle stalled after public protests and the withdrawal of political support.

The election will not resolve the dispute by itself. It will, however, determine whom Rio Tinto must negotiate with as permits approach expiry, maintenance costs continue to accumulate and more than €600 million of invested capital remains without a return.

For Rio Tinto, Jadar remains an investment only if the mine receives political and regulatory approval. Without it, one of Europe’s most promising lithium deposits could become one of the company’s costliest abandoned projects.

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