Global commodity markets entered the second half of 2026 with a combination of sharply higher energy prices and uneven movements in metals and agricultural products. For Serbia, the structure of the shock matters more than any single headline index because the country imports fuel, equipment and industrial inputs while exporting metals, food and manufactured goods.
Brent crude oil was 18.3% higher in July than at the beginning of the year, while WTI increased 20.1%. Coal rose 21.9%, creating an additional cost pressure for power generation and energy-intensive industry.
Natural gas moved in the opposite direction, declining 12.2%. The divergence between gas and coal alters the relative economics of industrial fuel switching and electricity generation, although delivered prices depend on contracts, transport, network tariffs and local market conditions.
Oil is the most immediate inflation channel. Higher crude prices affect refinery feedstock, diesel, petrol, aviation fuel, agricultural production, road transport and construction equipment. They also raise freight and insurance costs embedded in imported goods.
Serbia’s exposure is amplified by uncertainty surrounding Naftna Industrija Srbije. The Pančevo refinery and domestic distribution network are systemically important to transport, agriculture and industry. Reduced refinery output would increase dependence on imported petroleum products at a time of rising global prices.
The effect would spread across the economy. Hauliers would face higher fuel and working-capital costs, contractors would reprice earthworks and logistics, farmers would pay more for field operations, and manufacturers would absorb higher inbound and outbound transport expenses.
Coal’s 21.9% increase has a different transmission path. Serbia relies heavily on domestic lignite for electricity, but regional coal and power prices influence replacement energy, imported electricity and industrial procurement. Domestic mining performance and plant availability determine whether international coal inflation reaches Serbian power users directly.
Electricity, gas, steam and air-conditioning supply contracted 3.2% in January-May, continuing a multi-year decline. Weak domestic energy output increases exposure to regional prices precisely when international fuel markets are becoming more volatile.
Metals presented a mixed picture. Copper increased 6.7% and aluminium 3.3%, while iron ore declined 8.6% and gold fell 6.1% from the beginning of the year.
Higher copper prices support the revenue outlook for Serbian mining and processing operations but raise costs for electrical equipment, cables, transformers, renewable energy and construction. Serbia exports electrical conductors and industrial goods while simultaneously investing in grid and transport infrastructure, leaving different parts of the economy on opposite sides of the same price movement.
Aluminium’s increase affects packaging, automotive components, construction systems and electrical applications. Companies with fixed-price contracts face margin pressure when metal-price pass-through clauses are weak or delayed.
Lower iron-ore prices can reduce upstream steelmaking costs, but the benefit is not automatic for Serbian buyers. Finished steel prices also reflect energy, coking coal, freight, capacity utilisation and trade measures. Construction and manufacturing companies need to track delivered steel prices rather than infer savings from ore alone.
Agricultural commodities were similarly divided. Wheat increased 8% and soybeans 9.8%, while maize declined 4.6%. The changes affect Serbian farmers, feed producers, livestock companies, food processors and exporters differently.
Higher wheat and soybean prices can support crop revenues but raise input costs for bakeries, animal feed and food processing. Lower maize prices benefit users while reducing income for producers. Weather, storage and export logistics will determine how much of the global movement reaches domestic markets.
Consumer inflation averaged 2.9% in January-May, but accelerated to 3.5% in May as petroleum-product prices rose. Commodity pressure is therefore already visible in the inflation data, although it has not yet produced a broad price shock.
The National Bank’s response has been cautious. The reference rate remains at 5.75%, preserving a positive real rate and protecting the dinar. Higher commodity prices reduce the likelihood of rapid monetary easing, keeping borrowing costs elevated for industry.
Corporate credit nevertheless increased 12.1%, including 11.1% growth in liquidity and working-capital facilities. Commodity inflation raises the amount of financing required to hold the same physical inventory, even where production volumes do not change.
Investment loans grew 15.3%, suggesting companies are also financing efficiency and capacity projects. Energy-efficiency upgrades, heat recovery, electrification, on-site renewables and storage can reduce long-term exposure, but they require upfront capital and technically credible savings estimates.
Renewable electricity must be analysed by technology. Solar can reduce daytime procurement costs but does not cover evening or overnight industrial loads without storage or complementary supply. Wind offers higher capacity factors and a different production profile, making it more valuable for continuous operations in some consumption patterns.
Grid access remains decisive. A renewable or battery project can lose significant value when connection is delayed 12-18 months, particularly if financing costs accumulate and expected merchant or balancing revenues are deferred. Curtailment risk must be modelled by node rather than assumed from national averages.
CBAM adds a second cost layer for exporters. Metals, cement, fertilisers and other covered products face carbon-related commercial exposure in the EU. Commodity hedging alone is insufficient when buyers also require verified embedded-emissions data and credible electricity sourcing.
Serbian companies need integrated procurement strategies covering fuel, electricity, metals, agricultural inputs, currency and carbon evidence. Fixed-price contracts, indexed pass-through clauses, supplier diversification and inventory policies should be aligned with working-capital capacity rather than managed independently.
The current commodity environment is neither uniformly inflationary nor uniformly favourable. Serbia benefits from cheaper gas, iron ore and maize while facing higher oil, coal, copper, aluminium, wheat and soy prices. The companies best positioned for the second half will be those able to separate temporary price noise from structural exposure in their energy, financing and supply contracts.
