Compared to the previous month, inflation increased by 1.4 percent. Just two or three years ago, the annual inflation was that much.
To be honest, the National Bank predicted this development of the situation. At the presentation of the report on inflation last week, it was said that inflation will be up to one percentage point by the end of the quarter, and then its decline will begin, first slower, and faster from the first half of the year.
The inflation projections of the National Bank state that inflation will reach 15.9 percent in January, and that it will slow down slightly to 15.7 and 15.6 percent in February and March, respectively.
Economist Saša Đogović explains what is behind this jump in inflation, the highest monthly since October last year.
“This is completely expected, because both electricity and gas went up in January. They have pushed prices up. The increase in electricity prices of around eight percent contributed to inflation of 0.8 percent. When we add to that the increase in the price of gas, as well as their indirect effect on the increase in the price of other products in the production of which they are used, this explains the biggest part of the increase in inflation,” notes Đogović.
According to the data of the Bureau of Statistics, the price of electricity rose by 7.1 percent in January compared to December, and gas by 10.2 percent.
According to Đogović, the inflationary pressure will be high in the first quarter, and then it will begin to ease.
“This year, we will definitely have a trend of weakening consumer price growth, especially in the second half of the year.” Inflation in December will probably be around 10 percent, and if the agricultural harvest is better than last year, even below that,” Đogović concludes.