Serbia has recently completed its first barley harvests, while the wheat harvest is expected by the end of the month. Farmers are generally satisfied with the anticipated yields but remain concerned about low purchase prices for wheat. The Ministry of Agriculture has announced plans for the Commodity Reserves to buy part of the crop at a supportive price to help farmers.
Farmers in the Banat region expect excellent wheat yields if weather conditions remain favorable. For many, income from wheat sales is crucial, as it comes shortly after the autumn and spring sowing seasons. However, the current market price does not cover production costs, with investments per hectare reaching around 920 euros. As a result, some farmers plan to sell part of their crop to cover debts incurred during production.
Storage of wheat poses financial and logistical risks for farmers, with some reporting past difficulties due to bankruptcies of storage companies.
Experts predict a record wheat harvest this year in Serbia, with about 600,000 hectares sown and yields expected between 5.5 and 6 tons per hectare, leading to a total harvest of approximately 3.3 to 3.5 million tons. However, wheat stocks carried over from last year will be lower, which combined with the large new harvest, may increase pressure on domestic prices. Additionally, storage capacity may be strained with the upcoming corn harvest.
Globally, wheat production is also expected to reach record levels. The U.S. Department of Agriculture forecasts 808.5 million tons this season, boosted by higher yields in the EU and India. Various organizations estimate total global production between 800 and 808 million tons, indicating a strong harvest worldwide.
Wheat prices vary by region, with the Black Sea ports—a key export route for Serbia—showing stable prices around $221 to $234 per ton. Prices on major European and U.S. stock exchanges range from roughly $198 to $268 per ton, influenced by factors like oil prices and consumption estimates.
In Serbia, wheat prices recently ranged from 21.2 to 22 dinars per kilogram, excluding VAT, with weak export demand and ample supply leading to price drops.
The Ministry emphasizes that wheat prices are determined by global supply, demand, and climatic factors, limiting direct state intervention. However, it is encouraging the Commodity Reserves Directorate to purchase part of this year’s wheat at a supportive price, helping to ease market pressures and support farmers. The specific purchase details are expected before the harvest begins.
Some farmers remain skeptical about this measure, noting past difficulties accessing such programs or benefiting from them.
Looking ahead, wheat prices in Serbia will largely depend on harvest results in the Northern Hemisphere and global market trends, expected to be clearer by September 2025. Political factors such as US-China relations may also impact prices.
Serbia’s main wheat export destinations are Italy and Romania, with over 80% of exports going to these stable markets. Competition remains strong in other regions, like North Africa and the Middle East, particularly from Russia and Ukraine. Experts highlight the need for interstate agreements to improve Serbia’s competitiveness in new markets.
Finally, the Ministry stresses that the best returns come from processing cereals into value-added products, urging a strategic focus on increasing agricultural processing to boost farmer incomes and sector growth.
