Serbia’s wholesale natural gas prices have fluctuated this year between 30 and 40 euros per megawatt-hour, with the current price standing at 38 euros. This marks a decrease compared to the same period last year, when prices were 45 euros per megawatt-hour. Energy experts suggest that while prices have remained relatively stable for now, Serbia’s dependence on Russian gas could lead to a gradual increase in costs in the future.
Russian gas imports and price comparison
As of this month, Serbia is receiving an additional five million cubic meters per day of Russian gas, priced significantly below European market rates. The price for these additional supplies is 377 euros per thousand cubic meters, or about 37 euros per megawatt-hour, compared to the current European market price of around 410 euros per thousand cubic meters, or 41 euros per megawatt-hour.
For end consumers, the retail price of natural gas in Serbia is currently 46.2 euros per megawatt-hour. This is relatively low compared to other European countries, where retail gas prices can exceed 100 euros per megawatt-hour. For example, Hungary has the lowest price at 26 euros per megawatt-hour, while prices in countries like Germany, France, and Slovenia are significantly higher, ranging from 100 to 128 euros.
Price trends and factors influencing gas costs
Energy expert Željko Marković notes that gas prices have remained stable around 30 euros per megawatt-hour during the summer months, but began rising toward the end of the season due to increased geopolitical tensions and risks to supply through Ukraine. Miloš Zdravković, another energy expert, highlights that gas is used primarily for heating in Serbia, while in Europe, it is a key input for industrial processes, including electricity production. He points out that gas accounts for at least 20 percent of electricity production in Europe, underscoring the continent’s reliance on gas, particularly Russian imports.
Serbia’s gas dependency
Despite efforts to diversify its energy sources—such as the construction of a gas interconnector with Bulgaria and plans to import gas from Azerbaijan next year—Serbia remains heavily dependent on Russian gas. As Zdravković explains, although alternatives are theoretically available, Russian gas remains the most cost-effective option, especially considering the cheaper pipeline supplies.
Market Outlook and Potential Protection Measures
Financial analyst Danilo Pavićević predicts that gas prices will experience a gradual increase in line with broader macroeconomic factors, including inflation, GDP growth and interest rates. However, experts agree that Serbia’s gas storage capacities, which reached 90 percent by August and September, are expected to prevent significant price volatility in the short term.
To shield consumers from rising gas prices, Pavićević suggests that long-term contracts, alternative gas sources, and stricter regulations could provide some protection. However, Marković stresses that Serbia’s continued reliance on Russian gas remains a critical factor for managing energy prices in the future.
