The calculation has long been clear—renewable energy sources must rapidly replace fossil fuels to prevent apocalyptic droughts, floods and fires from becoming the norm rather than the exception in the coming decades.
Serbia recently took a significant step on the global path to reducing carbon dioxide emissions by signing agreements with foreign companies to build six large solar power plants. These plants will have a combined capacity of one gigawatt, surpassing all existing capacities for generating electricity from wind and solar energy.
However, even with these new solar installations, Serbia remains far from its goal of generating 3.5 gigawatts of electricity from renewable sources by 2030, and tripling that amount by 2040.
Miloš Zdravković, an energy expert, explains to BBC Serbian that while renewable energy sources are often touted as limitless, they are actually constrained by the country’s terrain and size. He suggests that Serbia should explore alternative clean energy sources to meet its ambitious targets.
In contrast, Željko Marković from the Energy Association believes that achieving the goal of 45% of Serbia’s electricity from renewable sources by 2030 is feasible. He points out that solar power plants could help alleviate electricity shortages during summer months when Serbia relies on electricity imports.
Currently, Serbia generates 30% of its electricity from renewable sources, which is above the EU average. This is largely due to major hydroelectric plants like Đerdap and Bajina Bašta. Wind and solar contribute only a few percent, with total capacity for wind and solar energy below one gigawatt.
Due to reduced production from thermal power plants and favorable hydrological conditions, renewable sources accounted for 40% of electricity generation at one point in 2024, according to Zdravković. He notes that while the percentage of renewable energy is increasing, it’s primarily due to decreased coal production rather than new capacity investments.
Over the next decade or so, Serbia’s energy landscape is expected to change significantly, as indicated by strategic documents. Zdravković questions the feasibility of building 3.5 gigawatts from wind farms and 7.5 gigawatts from solar power over the next 15 years, given that the country has historically built plants with a combined capacity of 8.5 gigawatts over the last century.
Experts agree that Serbia needs a balanced energy mix that considers how different sources function together. Kovačević from the Oxford Institute for Energy Studies highlights that the amount of energy generated from solar and wind per unit capacity in Serbia is lower than in neighboring countries. For instance, while solar plants in Serbia may operate at full capacity for about 1,200 hours annually, those in Albania and Greece achieve around 1,500 and 1,600 hours, respectively.
Zdravković emphasizes that solar plants typically generate the most electricity between 11 AM and 2 PM, while peak consumption occurs in the evening when people return home from work. He states that the major challenge is how to store energy produced during the day for later use.
The six new solar plants will include battery storage systems with a total capacity of up to 200 megawatts. Marković notes that excess energy can charge these batteries, which can then be used in the evening.
However, Banjac, a professor of mechanical engineering, warns that battery storage is a temporary solution and poses problems, such as longevity and disposal concerns. He points out that this method is not universally accepted and is a subject of ongoing debate.
In mid-September 2024, Serbia and the United States signed an energy agreement aimed at enhancing energy security in Southeast Europe and facilitating Serbia’s green transition. The Serbian government adopted this agreement in October, which outlines a goal to reduce coal usage and enable cross-border projects. Potential cooperation in nuclear energy is also mentioned.
Shortly after, a contract was signed for the construction of six solar plants with a consortium of companies, including Hyundai Engineering from South Korea and UGT Renewables from the U.S. While the cost has not been disclosed, the plants are set to be built in Negotin, Zaječar, Odžaci, Lebane, Leskovac, and Bujanovac, with initial capacity expected to be online by 2027 and full completion by mid-2028.
As for moving away from coal, thermal power plants are the largest source of carbon dioxide emissions in Serbia. In 2022, nearly three-quarters of the country’s CO2 emissions came from electricity generation. As a candidate for EU membership and a signatory to international agreements, Serbia must find ways to reduce coal usage.
Additionally, financial incentives are pressing, as the EU plans to impose carbon taxes on imported products, including electricity, starting in 2026.
Kovačević points out that Serbia has significant geothermal resources that remain underutilized. He argues that geothermal plants can operate for over 8,000 hours annually at full capacity, generating both electricity and thermal energy. In contrast, solar facilities may only generate power for about 1,200 hours each year.
To improve its economic situation, Serbia must double its per capita electricity production while replacing current fossil fuel sources with sustainable and competitive energy production methods.
