Serbia’s external accounts improved markedly during the first half of 2026, providing an important counterweight to concerns about high domestic spending and investment.
The current-account deficit narrowed by around 30% year on year to approximately €1.4 billion.
A smaller merchandise deficit contributed to the improvement, while Serbia’s services surplus continued to provide an increasingly important source of foreign earnings.
This matters because Serbia remains structurally dependent on imported machinery, energy, components and consumer products. Rapid domestic growth can therefore deteriorate the external balance unless exports rise at a similar pace.
During the first half, that pressure eased.
Goods exports expanded faster than imports, while the services sector continued to generate substantial net foreign income.
Serbia’s growing services surplus reflects one of the more successful but less visible transformations of the economy. IT, professional services, transport and other internationally traded activities increasingly offset part of the structural merchandise deficit.
There is still a significant leakage through the income account. Serbia hosts a large stock of foreign-owned companies, meaning dividends and other investment income eventually flow to overseas shareholders.
That is a natural consequence of a development model built heavily around foreign direct investment.
The strategic challenge is therefore to increase the share of value retained domestically: more Serbian suppliers, engineering, intellectual property, management functions and locally owned exporters.
The narrowing current-account deficit provides Serbia with more room to manage external shocks and reduces financing requirements.
It also strengthens the central bank’s ability to maintain currency stability without relying excessively on new external borrowing or investment inflows.
Serbia has not solved its structural external imbalance. But the first-half figures suggest the direction improved significantly in 2026.
