China increased its share of Serbian goods trade in the first seven months of 2026, but the European Union retained its dominant position, underscoring the limits of Belgrade’s effort to diversify its economic partnerships.
EU member states accounted for 58.6% of Serbia’s merchandise trade, up from 58.1% a year earlier, according to the September edition of the Macroeconomic Analyses and Trends bulletin.
Germany remained Serbia’s largest individual partner with a 13.1% share, although that was down from 13.5%. China’s share increased from 10.6% to 11.1%, consolidating its second-place position.
The figures reflect Serbia’s dual economic orientation. Chinese companies have expanded their role in Serbian mining, metals, infrastructure and manufacturing, while the EU remains the principal market for the country’s exports and the core of its industrial supply chains.
Italy’s share of trade increased particularly strongly, rising from 6.5% to 7.8%. Serbia recorded a €105.2 million surplus with Italy, reversing a €408.2 million deficit a year earlier, largely because of vehicle exports from Kragujevac.
Serbian manufacturers remain dependent on demand from Germany, Italy and other EU markets. The bloc is also the principal source of industrial standards, product rules and carbon-related requirements affecting Serbian exporters.
China offers investment, financing and access to alternative suppliers and markets, but greater Chinese ownership does not reduce Serbia’s reliance on EU customers. This is particularly visible in sectors such as steel, where a Chinese-owned Serbian producer must comply with European quotas, origin rules and carbon requirements to reach its main export market.
The relationship could become more difficult as the EU tightens trade-defence measures and scrutiny of products linked to Chinese capital or inputs. Serbian exporters may face pressure to document where materials were produced, melted, processed and financed.
Serbia has succeeded in attracting capital from China without economically disengaging from Europe. Its central commercial challenge is that Chinese-owned production inside Serbia still needs access to the EU market.
Belgrade’s trade policy may be diversified, but the destination of its industrial future remains overwhelmingly European.
