In a major shift on the global economic stage, U.S. President Donald Trump introduced tariffs on over 180 countries, including Serbia, with the aim of addressing trade imbalances. The tariffs imposed on Serbia are notably high, reaching 37%, significantly above the tariffs Serbia applies on American goods, which range from 5 to 20%.
The decision stems from a U.S. calculation that Serbia’s customs duties are 74%, although Serbian economists dispute this figure, citing discrepancies in data between the two countries. According to Milojko Arsić, a professor at the Faculty of Economics in Belgrade, the U.S. tariffs could have broader consequences, particularly for the European economy, which is more integrated with the U.S. market than Serbia. The automotive and steel industries are expected to be the most affected sectors in Serbia, especially if European manufacturers, including those working with Serbian subcontractors, face higher tariffs.
Arsić also warns that the tariffs could harm investments in Serbia, as many companies rely on exporting goods to Europe and the U.S. However, he remains hopeful that these policies may not last long, as they could face opposition within the U.S. due to their inflationary effects.
Dušan Marković, also from the Faculty of Economics in Belgrade, highlights the impact on Serbia’s suppliers, especially in the automotive sector. With a weakening European market and additional U.S. tariffs, Serbian producers may struggle to maintain competitiveness. Marković believes the tariff imposition is more of a political message than a solid economic policy.
In terms of trade, Serbia’s exports to the U.S. amounted to 620 million euros last year, while imports totaled 684 million euros, resulting in a deficit of 64 million euros. Serbia’s service exports to the U.S. saw a surplus of 1.4 billion euros, while foreign direct investment from the U.S. increased by 235%. Major Serbian exports to the U.S. include car tires, unclassified goods, and military equipment, while imports primarily consist of machinery and aircraft.
Serbia’s economy faces a challenging period, especially for sectors tied to European markets. The long-term effects of the tariffs remain uncertain, but the immediate concern is the indirect impact on European economies and Serbian industries closely linked to them.
