Professor Velimir Lukić of the University of Belgrade’s Faculty of Economics told RTS that Serbia is currently in a stalemate regarding NIS because commercially viable solutions are not available. He noted that nationalization is always the quickest and simplest option — but also the most controversial.
OFAC rejects “grey-zone” solutions
The proposal by NIS’s Russian partner to transfer management to a “third party” did not satisfy U.S. requirements. According to Lukić, Washington sent a clear message that interim arrangements or grey-zone solutions are unacceptable for OFAC.
“OFAK has taken a firmer stance. With the sanctions now imposed on NIS, previously suggested solutions are being accelerated. OFAC is sending mixed signals — in Serbia they insist Russian ownership must be eliminated, while for some other companies like Lukoil, this is not the only condition,” Lukić said.
What do the additional three months mean?
Lukić explained that the newly granted three-month extension provides continuous OFAC supervision.
“That means any proposed solution will be reviewed quickly, and if a financial transaction occurs, it can go through regular international banking channels,” he said.
A stalemate with no commercial solutions
“We are in a stalemate where a solution is demanded, yet commercial solutions simply aren’t available,” Lukić pointed out.
Ahead of the government session, he expects updated data on Serbia’s oil supply and a dual appeal:
- to Washington, highlighting that Serbia faces at least a temporary oil market disruption
- to Moscow, explaining that NIS currently operates only because the state is providing support, but such support cannot last indefinitely
Nationalization: Fast but controversial
Lukić stressed that nationalization is always the easiest and fastest, but also the most far-reaching and diplomatically sensitive option.
“Nationalization reshapes Serbia’s relations with major global powers, including Russia. We’ve had similar turning points before, and this could be another one,” he said.
If the refinery stops
If the Pančevo refinery shuts down, Serbia will have no alternative but increased imports, he noted.
NIS’s market share has already dropped from 80% to below two-thirds, and imports of gasoline and diesel have doubled. Lukić expects these trends to continue.
Supply options
Serbia would rely primarily on neighboring countries with refineries and sufficient processing capacity:
- Hungary (advantaged by river and rail transport; MOL has pledged assistance)
- Romania
Other suppliers could participate, but not at the scale needed to fully cover Serbia’s market.
Consequences of full import dependence
“If we rely solely on imports, we cannot guarantee stable supply,” Lukić warned.
- Serbia becomes dependent on the willingness of other countries to deliver
- Serbia becomes energy-dependent, which may be normal for smaller states, but is not optimal for a country of Serbia’s size
