The future of the Serbian Oil Industry (NIS) appears to be heading in a direction few are acknowledging. Vladan Pavlović, an analyst at IPOPEMA Securities, told the specialized portal Energija Balkana that Serbia might simply allow the company to collapse, leaving a non-functional entity for Gazprom to manage as it sees fit. Meanwhile, efforts are underway to secure imported petroleum products and handle logistics during this period.
Pavlović noted that what should be a serious issue has already taken on the character of a parody or reality show, where it is unclear who is saying what, how credible the statements are, or how they should be interpreted.
“The past week has shown that not only analysts are guessing the outcomes of this circus, but the entire government leadership seems unsure as well,” Pavlović observed. He outlined the constant shifting of deadlines for the U.S. license—from Monday, then an additional 48 hours, then 36 hours, to Wednesday night, Friday night, and now “sometime next week.” Meanwhile, the so-called “warm circulation” of the refinery is lasting longer than expected. A new wave of speculation has arisen following news that Hungarian company MOL could potentially acquire stakes in Russian-sanctioned companies.
Pavlović stressed that MOL’s role is clear: the company aims to maximize refinery capacity and fuel deliveries, rather than actually acquiring non-existent assets. MOL’s goal, he said, is to capture as large a market share as possible, while presenting it as support for energy stability in Serbia.
The analyst also highlighted the confusion created by Serbian officials in recent days. Pavlović questioned how Serbia could provide guarantees, especially given complaints that Russian partners refused to cooperate. He cited Finance Minister Siniša Mali, who stated that Russia had not sought any solution together with Serbia, in contrast to Energy Minister Dubravka Đedović Handanović, who claims Serbia is fully involved and providing comments “hour by hour.”
According to Pavlović, Serbia has probably misled OFAC multiple times through various “fictional repackagings,” resulting in sanctions and leaving the country with a final deadline of February 13 to resolve the issue. He doubts it is realistic to expect that Serbia could now somehow convince OFAC to issue another license while Russia completes its internal processes.
“Fear of Russian retaliation is likely not insignificant,” Pavlović added, noting potential measures such as gas supply reductions.
Ultimately, he believes that after 50 days, Serbia will not take over the company, but will let it fail, leaving the Russians to manage a dysfunctional entity. Meanwhile, the infrastructure will likely adapt to full imports, causing only a mild increase in fuel prices, while NIS loses significance in Serbia’s energy sector—unless sanctions are lifted due to a resolution of the war in Ukraine.
