Serbia’s external trade performance in early 2026 points to a gradual rebalancing of its trade structure, with export growth beginning to outpace import expansion—an important signal for both macro stability and industrial competitiveness.
In the first three months of 2026, total foreign trade in goods reached €19.0–19.03 billion, marking a 3.3% year-on-year increase. This headline figure masks a more significant internal shift: exports are accelerating meaningfully, while import growth has largely plateaued.
Exports totaled €8.7 billion, up 7.1% year-on-year, reflecting stronger performance across manufacturing and energy-linked segments. Imports, by contrast, reached €10.3 billion, rising only 0.3%, indicating a cooling of domestic demand for imported goods or improved substitution dynamics.
This divergence translated directly into a narrower trade gap. Serbia’s trade deficit stood at €1.6 billion, representing a sharp 25.4% reduction compared to the same period in 2025. At the same time, export coverage of imports improved to 84.4%, up from 79.1% a year earlier—one of the clearest indicators of strengthening external balance.
From a geographic standpoint, the structure of trade remains heavily anchored in Europe. The European Union accounted for 59.2% of total trade, reinforcing Serbia’s position as a deeply integrated manufacturing and supply-chain node within the EU industrial perimeter.
At the regional level, Serbia continues to generate substantial surpluses within the CEFTA framework. Exports to CEFTA markets reached approximately €1.1 billion, against imports of just €361 million, producing a surplus of nearly €740 million and a very high coverage ratio of over 300%. This reflects Serbia’s role as a net exporter of electricity, fuels, and industrial goods to neighboring economies.
Trade composition further underscores the country’s industrial profile. Key export flows include electricity, base metals, chemicals, machinery, and automotive components, while imports are dominated by energy inputs, machinery, and intermediate industrial goods—a structure consistent with a manufacturing-driven, import-dependent production base.
Monthly dynamics show additional acceleration toward the end of the quarter. In March alone, exports reached €3.3 billion, rising 15.4% year-on-year, while imports exceeded €4 billion, up 6.3%. This suggests that export momentum is strengthening into Q2, potentially supported by recovering EU demand and improved industrial output.
Regionally within Serbia, export activity is relatively diversified. The largest share originates from Vojvodina (29.9%), followed by Šumadija and Western Serbia (25%), and Southern and Eastern Serbia (23.6%), with Belgrade contributing 20.4%. This dispersion indicates a broad industrial base rather than concentration in a single export hub.
Taken together, the first-quarter data signals a meaningful shift in Serbia’s external position. Export growth is no longer being fully offset by rising imports, and the reduction in the trade deficit—down by more than a quarter—points to improving macro fundamentals.
For investors and industrial operators, the key takeaway lies in the structure of that growth: Serbia is increasingly functioning as a near-EU manufacturing extension, exporting higher volumes while stabilizing import dependence. If sustained, this trajectory supports tighter current account dynamics, stronger FX stability, and improved credit positioning over the medium term.
