Serbia plans €3.8 billion in excise revenues for 2026 led by fuel taxes amid NIS sanctions uncertainty

According to Serbia’s 2026 draft state budget, the government expects to collect over €3 billion in excise tax revenues, with fuel excise duties making up the largest share, despite ongoing uncertainty surrounding the Naftna Industrija Srbije (NIS), which has recently come under U.S. sanctions.

The total planned excise revenue amounts to 453.3 billion dinars (€3.8 billion), or about 19% of all projected tax revenues for next year.

Breakdown of excise revenues

• Fuel excise duties: 244 billion dinars
• Tobacco products: 154 billion dinars
• Other excise taxes (including electricity): 55.3 billion dinars

The excise tax on electricity, set at 7.5% of total consumption charges, has risen due to recent price increases.

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Stable oil market assumptions

The budget projects a 3.8% increase in revenue from fuel excises compared to 2025, based on expectations of stable oil consumption. The government notes that excise rates will be adjusted annually in line with inflation, estimated at around 3%.

The fuel excise refund for farmers will continue, provided that the domestic market remains adequately supplied.

Expert opinions

Economist Ljubodrag Savić from the Faculty of Economics told Nova Ekonomija that the expected increase aligns with inflation-based adjustments.

“The adjustment is done according to inflation, which is around 3%, plus or minus one percent. That corresponds roughly to what the government has projected,” he said.

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However, Savić warned that fuel prices may rise next year due to sanctions on NIS:

“Whether NIS operates or not, Serbia will still import oil. But sanctions could complicate imports, especially if supply from Europe is limited. Importing crude oil for domestic refining will likely cost more, meaning consumers will face higher fuel prices.”

He also noted that the current government regulation capping fuel prices could be lifted, potentially allowing prices to increase.

Economist Milan Kovačević added that raising excise taxes is one of the government’s tools to boost revenue:

“If the government wanted to increase revenues more efficiently, it would have raised VAT on fuel, since VAT is calculated as a percentage of the price, while excise is a fixed amount per liter,” he said.

Currently, Serbia’s excise tax per liter is 70.11 dinars for gasoline and 72.09 dinars for diesel.