Serbia’s government has moved into crisis-management mode as the country’s only oil refinery faces the most serious disruption in years. With U.S. sanctions now directly targeting the Russian parent companies of NIS, Serbia’s dominant oil and gas player, the government signaled this week that it is preparing legislative amendments that would allow a rapid change in ownership and management control, a move aimed at ensuring energy security and preventing paralysis in the domestic fuel market.
Officials from the Ministry of Energy and the Ministry of Finance confirmed that the draft amendment is being prepared under an accelerated procedure. Though details remain deliberately vague, senior officials hinted that the goal is a legal pathway for the state to intervene in a company whose majority shareholder is subject to sanctions. In practice, this means Serbia could take operational—and potentially ownership—control of NIS, which is currently majority-owned by Russia’s Gazprom Neft.
The possibility of a state-engineered ownership transition is unprecedented in Serbia’s post-privatisation era. Yet the government’s argument rests on the critical nature of the refinery in Pančevo, the distribution network that supplies the entire country, and the fact that more than 80 percent of Serbia’s fuel consumption depends on NIS operations. With the company forced into “hot standby” mode following disruptions in crude shipments and banking restrictions, the urgency is clear.
President Aleksandar Vučić has stated publicly that the state will do “everything necessary” to secure supply. Behind the scenes, senior officials are reportedly debating several models: temporary state management oversight, compulsory purchase of a controlling stake, or a hybrid arrangement enabling Serbia to assume strategic decision-making rights while negotiations with Russia continue. International partners are also watching closely. Western diplomats, especially from the EU and U.S., have for years urged Serbia to decrease its energy reliance on Russia, seeing the NIS ownership structure as a strategic vulnerability. This crisis has accelerated those discussions.
Financial analysts say that any takeover—voluntary or forced—comes with significant fiscal implications. NIS is profitable, but the valuation of a majority stake, the settlement of obligations with Russia, and the need to secure alternative crude sources could cost the state hundreds of millions of euros. Still, the government appears prepared to proceed, stressing that uninterrupted fuel supply is the priority.
The refinery crisis has exposed the structural dependence built into Serbia’s energy system over nearly two decades. Since the early 2000s, NIS has held a near-monopoly over the refining and distribution chain. Attempts to diversify supply routes were slow and politically complicated. With sanctions now interrupting normal operations, Serbia must quickly establish new logistical arrangements. Possible solutions include increased imports through Croatia’s JANAF system, greater reliance on spot-market buying, and longer-term arrangements with suppliers in the Mediterranean.
Politically, the crisis arrives at a delicate moment. The government seeks to present itself as decisive and capable of protecting the public interest, while also managing its complex relationship with Moscow. Russia, for its part, is unlikely to welcome the idea of losing one of its most valuable strategic assets in the Balkans. Diplomatic consultations between Belgrade and Moscow are ongoing, though details remain confidential. What is clear is that the Serbian public is already feeling the anxiety: long lines formed at petrol stations earlier in the week, despite repeated government assurances that reserves are sufficient.
The coming weeks will determine the scale of Serbia’s shift away from Russian energy ownership. If the government proceeds with the amendment, it would mark a watershed moment in Serbia’s economic policy, signaling not only a recalibration of strategic partnerships but also the beginning of a longer-term restructuring of the energy sector. For now, the only certainty is that Serbia is preparing for a decisive intervention in one of its most important companies, an intervention that will shape the country’s energy future for years to come.
