Rising geopolitical tensions and active conflict zones are reshaping oil and gas supply routes, particularly in Europe. Despite these challenges, major energy projects continue to move forward. Energy security expert Petar Stanojević emphasized that for Serbia, securing a long-term gas agreement with Gazprom is critical to ensure stable supply and competitive pricing.
Currently, oil prices fluctuate modestly between $66 and $68 per barrel, while gas prices are gradually increasing. Stanojević notes that fundamental factors, including supply and demand balance, dollar stability, and geopolitical events, continue to influence market dynamics. Geopolitical instability, such as recent events in Qatar, can disrupt plans and affect prices. For Russia, oil prices below $60 per barrel are unsustainable due to budgetary requirements, and this floor indirectly influences global markets.
Regarding gas, prices are slowly rising ahead of the heating season, with current rates around €350 per 1,000 cubic meters. Stanojević stresses that for Serbia, the key priorities in any long-term agreement with Gazprom are guaranteed daily volumes of 8–9 million cubic meters (around 3 billion cubic meters annually), stable pricing based on oil-indexed formulas, and flexibility to access additional quantities when needed.
Neighboring countries, such as Hungary, are diversifying supply by signing LNG contracts with Western partners like Shell. LNG from the Krk terminal in Croatia will help supply the Hungarian market, demonstrating the region’s increasing flexibility in sourcing energy.
The closure of the Ukrainian gas pipeline has elevated the strategic importance of the “Turkish Stream” for Russian gas deliveries to the Balkans. Other routes, including the Southern Gas Corridor (TAP and TANAP), can supplement supply but cannot replace the full capacity previously provided by Nord Stream.
Europe’s largest suppliers remain Norway, covering 30–35% of demand, and the United States, supplying 25–30% of the market. Stanojević predicts that the U.S. role in European gas supply will grow further due to multi-year agreements, potentially shifting Europe’s dependency from Russia to new dominant suppliers.
Globally, energy infrastructure projects continue despite conflict. Turkey and Syria are constructing a new gas pipeline for local power supply, while Russia and China are advancing “Power of Siberia 2,” increasing capacity from 38 to 44 billion cubic meters annually and building an additional 12 billion cubic meters pipeline to supply China.
For Serbia, ensuring a secure long-term gas supply, competitive prices, and flexible access is essential to mitigate risks from geopolitical disruptions and maintain energy stability, especially as winter demand approaches.
Large producers, including the U.S. and traditional oil-exporting nations, benefit most from these developments, while consumers and import-dependent countries, including much of Europe, face higher risks and costs. Serbia’s strategic agreements with Gazprom aim to protect national energy interests and maintain reliable supply in this volatile global context.
