Serbia expects to extend its Russian gas supply arrangement beyond September 30 at around €318 per 1,000 cubic metres, highlighting the tension between Belgrade’s drive to diversify energy supply and the price advantage of Russian gas.
President Aleksandar Vučić said after talks with Russian President Vladimir Putin on September 26 that he expected the agreement to be prolonged at roughly the current price.
A final extension and its duration have not yet been publicly confirmed.
The deadline coincides with the expiry of the latest U.S. operating waiver affecting NIS, Serbia’s dominant oil company, while Belgrade is also expanding alternative gas routes and trying to resolve Russian ownership in NIS.
For Serbian industry, retaining gas at around €318 would reduce a significant winter cost risk. Gas remains important for chemicals, metals, food processing, building materials and district heating, while future gas-fired power generation could increase demand further.
Serbia has meanwhile invested heavily in diversification.
The Serbia-Bulgaria interconnector provides access to Azerbaijani gas and potentially LNG delivered through Greece. Connections with Romania and North Macedonia are planned, and a newly approved $600 million World Bank gas programme is expected to expand transmission, storage and sector infrastructure.
Bulgarian state supplier Bulgargaz has also obtained a 10-year Serbian wholesale licence.
But additional routes do not automatically mean cheaper gas. LNG includes shipping, regasification and transport costs, while Azerbaijani supplies currently cover only part of Serbia’s roughly 3 billion cubic metres of annual consumption.
Storage is another constraint. Banatski Dvor has working capacity of about 450 million cubic metres, with expansion planned to 750 million cubic metres.
The emerging Serbian strategy is therefore not necessarily to replace Russian gas, but to build enough alternative pipelines, suppliers and storage to ensure it is no longer indispensable.
At €318 per 1,000 cubic metres, Russian gas retains a compelling commercial case. Serbia’s longer-term test is whether continuing to buy it becomes an economic choice rather than a structural necessity.
