Although Serbia has the most developed economy in the Western Balkans, it lags 35 years behind the average EU economy and will struggle to close the gap unless it becomes a full EU member or begins phased accession, according to the Converge2EU initiative.
The initiative, coordinated by the Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies and Think Europe, supports the EU integration of six Western Balkan countries. In Serbia, it is implemented by the Institute for Development and Innovation.
The study found that Serbia’s economy trails the EU by 35 years, while its healthcare, infrastructure, and governance are 100 years behind. The only area nearing EU standards is digitalization, where Serbia lags by just four years. GDP per capita stands at 51% of the EU average, average wages at 38%, and pensions at only 18%.
Investment in education and renewable energy is at 67% of the EU level, while public administration remains inefficient and burdened by political instability and corruption.
Nenad Jevtović, director of the Institute for Development and Innovation, said Serbia’s economic model—based mainly on foreign direct investment and infrastructure projects—has become inefficient. He argued that EU membership or phased accession would significantly accelerate convergence, but the likelihood of this remains low.
Branimir Jovanović from the Vienna Institute stated that full EU membership would allow Serbia to reach the EU’s GDP per capita level in 18 years, phased accession in 21 years, and under the most realistic scenario in 25 years. Without reforms, convergence could take up to 29 years.
Examples from Bulgaria and Romania show the benefits of EU membership: since joining in 2007, their GDP per capita (adjusted for purchasing power) has risen by 163% and 188%, respectively, compared to Serbia’s 137%.
Experts concluded that EU accession is not only a matter of reforms but also political will. While Serbia once led the region in the accession process, Albania and Montenegro are now considered the frontrunners.
