Serbia successfully managed the 2009 gas crisis when Russia halted gas supplies to Europe due to a dispute with Ukraine, despite relying on only a single gas line through Hungary. Today, experts told Danas that Serbia is in a much stronger position if Russian gas supplies are interrupted due to issues with NIS.
Back in 2009, Serbia sourced gas from Hungary and Western Europe, mainly Germany, a solution that could still be employed today. The current situation is more flexible thanks to the new gas interconnector with Bulgaria, which currently brings Azerbaijani gas and could potentially supply more. Additional volumes could also be secured via the LNG terminal in Alexandroupolis, Greece, while Serbia continues to procure gas through the European market to cover shortfalls.
President Aleksandar Vučić recently raised the possibility of Russian gas cuts, stating that if Serbia does not finalize a supply contract with Russia, negotiations would shift elsewhere. Analysts note that Russia may be delaying a long-term gas agreement until Serbia’s approach to NIS becomes clear. Experts warn that Russia is unlikely to sell NIS and Serbia may need temporary management or purchase measures, which could provoke a Russian gas cutoff.
Energy expert Miodrag Kapor said Serbia can safely navigate the upcoming winter without Russian gas, thanks to new infrastructure and storage facilities. He highlighted that the Bulgaria interconnector currently provides 400 million cubic meters of Azerbaijani gas, while an additional 1.4 billion cubic meters could come from LNG imports via Alexandroupolis. Kapor emphasized that while initial LNG purchases could raise prices, medium- and long-term costs would stabilize.
Kapor also stressed the political and strategic benefits of gas diversification, noting that Serbia has gas reserves at Banatski Dvor and in Hungary.
Energy journalist Jelica Putniković noted that missing gas volumes can always be purchased on the European gas market, though at higher prices than Russian supplies via the Turkish Stream. While additional Azerbaijani volumes are uncertain, negotiations are expected, but LNG from Alexandroupolis likely won’t arrive in time for this heating season. Some gas could also be procured from Turkey through the Bulgarian interconnector.
Political and economic analyst Aleksandar Đokić pointed out that Serbia could buy LNG from the U.S., Qatar, Algeria, and other global suppliers, transported by sea. LNG would reach Serbia either via Alexandroupolis in Greece or Krk in Croatia, with the latter routed through Hungary. Đokić cautioned that without Russian gas, prices could spike, especially if purchases are made reactively rather than planned in advance.
Overall, experts agree that Serbia’s diversified supply options and infrastructure improvements put the country in a much stronger position compared to 2009, but careful planning will be needed to avoid price volatility.
