Corporate borrowing accelerated in early 2026 as Serbian companies sought financing for investment, working capital and higher operating requirements. The expansion supports economic activity, but most company debt remains linked to foreign currencies, while the number and value of blocked business accounts are moving higher.
Domestic bank lending and external corporate debt both recorded strong annual growth. Total company debt expanded at a low double-digit rate, marking a clear recovery from the weaker credit period of 2023–2024.
Corporate loans represented slightly above 40% of GDP, increasing from the recent low. The ratio remains below earlier peaks, suggesting that Serbia is not yet experiencing excessive aggregate corporate leverage.
The composition creates greater concern than the headline volume. Close to 80% of bank claims on companies were denominated in or indexed to foreign currencies, predominantly euros. Dinar lending has increased, but it remains a minority of corporate credit.
For exporters with euro revenue, the currency match can be appropriate. Automotive suppliers, mining companies and manufacturers selling into the EU can service euro-linked obligations from foreign-currency cash flow.
Domestic retailers, construction companies, utilities and service businesses may have primarily dinar revenue while carrying euro-linked liabilities. Their risk emerges through higher EURIBOR, refinancing costs or a change in the dinar-euro exchange rate.
The NBS’s policy of relative dinar stability has prevented currency mismatches from becoming an immediate credit problem. It cannot eliminate the underlying structural exposure over the full term of a loan.
Sector concentration is significant. Mining and manufacturing accounted for 25.7% of corporate bank claims, trade 22.8%, real estate 13.2%, transport 11.5%, construction 10.9%, electricity and energy 10.1%, and agriculture 4.6%.
These sectors are exposed to different risks. Manufacturing depends on EU demand and imported inputs. Mining is sensitive to metals prices and project execution. Construction and real estate depend on interest rates, permits and property demand. Transport faces fuel and trade-volume exposure, while energy investments carry grid, regulatory and commodity risks.
Blocked business accounts increased to approximately 50,000, with the amount under blockage approaching RSD230bn. Both measures remain below their historical peaks but have deteriorated from the post-pandemic lows.
The increase can indicate cash-flow pressure among smaller and less capitalised businesses even while aggregate bank asset quality remains strong. NPL statistics may react later because account blockage can precede formal loan impairment.
Industrial performance was mixed during the quarter. Manufacturing and mining showed improvement, but electricity production remained volatile. Companies increasing output while domestic electricity supply weakens can face higher power costs and greater exposure to imports.
Corporate credit can support investment and productivity, but its purpose matters. Financing machinery, export capacity, renewable generation or energy efficiency can create cash flow capable of servicing debt. Borrowing to cover persistent operating losses or overdue supplier obligations merely postpones restructuring.
Banks should separate companies benefiting from genuine demand growth from those relying on credit to absorb cost escalation. Stress tests should include euro interest rates, energy prices, customer concentration and delayed public-sector or construction receivables.
Serbia’s corporate sector is not overleveraged at the aggregate level, but rapid new lending, high euroisation and growing blocked-account indicators justify more selective underwriting during the next phase of the cycle.
