Serbian companies lift profit above €8bn as export sectors widen their lead

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Serbia’s corporate sector delivered another year of profit growth in 2025, but the headline improvement conceals a more uneven redistribution of economic power. Mining and export-oriented manufacturing strengthened their contribution, information technology maintained rapid earnings growth, while retail, construction and public enterprises faced weaker margins or rising losses.

Companies operating in Serbia generated an aggregate net profit of RSD958bn, equivalent to slightly more than €8bn, representing an increase of 10.9 per cent from the previous year. This was the eleventh consecutive year in which the corporate sector finished in positive territory, reinforcing the impression of an economy that remained commercially resilient despite uncertain foreign demand, elevated financing costs and persistent pressure on operating expenses.

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The scale of business activity continued to expand. A total of 111,695 companies covered by the financial statements employed 1.33mn people and generated combined revenue of RSD21.1tn, or approximately €180.4bn. Revenue increased by 3.1 per cent, while expenses rose at a slightly slower rate of 2.8 per cent, reaching RSD19.9tn, or about €170.3bn.

That difference between revenue and expenditure growth was narrow, but sufficient to improve the aggregate result. It suggests that Serbian companies succeeded in retaining part of the operational discipline imposed by the inflation and energy-price shocks of previous years. Yet it also shows that profit growth was not driven by a broad surge in sales. Much of the improvement came from cost management, stronger commodity-sector earnings and better results among a relatively concentrated group of large exporters.

Of the companies covered, 67,424 reported a positive result, while 32,551 ended the year with a net loss. The remaining entities were either around break-even or fell into reporting categories that do not translate directly into a positive or negative final result. The gap between profitable companies and loss-makers remains substantial, but the existence of more than 32,000 loss-making businesses shows that the expansion has not been distributed evenly across company size, ownership structure or sector.

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Balance sheets strengthened alongside earnings. Corporate assets rose by 6.5 per cent to RSD27.5tn, equivalent to approximately €235.5bn, while aggregate capital increased by 7.9 per cent to RSD12.5tn, or about €107bn. Own financing sources expanded by 8.3 per cent to RSD10.7tn, while total liabilities increased by a more moderate 5.5 per cent, reaching RSD16.8tn.

This is one of the more encouraging elements of the results. Equity and internally generated financing grew faster than liabilities, suggesting that at least part of the corporate sector used recent earnings to reinforce capital rather than relying exclusively on new borrowing. That matters in an environment where Serbian companies, particularly smaller domestic manufacturers, continue to face higher financing costs than competitors in the euro area.

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The aggregate figures nevertheless give an incomplete picture. Serbian corporate profitability is becoming increasingly concentrated in sectors and companies with access to export markets, natural resources or scalable technology services. The strongest results came from mining, manufacturing and information and communications, while domestically oriented sectors delivered considerably more modest performance.

Mining emerged as Serbia’s most profitable corporate activity, generating net earnings of RSD190bn, or approximately €1.6bn. The sector achieved this result even though operating revenue declined by 6.7 per cent. Expenses fell considerably faster, by 12.2 per cent, lifting the sector’s net margin to an exceptional 22 per cent.

The apparent strength of Serbian mining is heavily concentrated in the two Zijin-controlled companies operating in the Bor region. Serbia Zijin Mining generated an estimated €1.1bn in profit, while Serbia Zijin Copper earned about €526mn. Together, they accounted for almost the entire reported profit of the national mining sector.

Their combined earnings exceeded those of Serbia’s banking industry, which recorded a historic profit of RSD166.5bn, equivalent to roughly €1.4bn. The comparison illustrates the scale of the copper and gold operations around Bor and Čukaru Peki, but it also exposes the concentration risk embedded in Serbia’s corporate statistics.

Mining employs only about 30,000 people, and the bulk of sector earnings is generated by two foreign-owned businesses whose results remain linked to international copper and gold prices, ore grades, production volumes and internal investment cycles. These operations make a major contribution to exports, tax receipts and capital expenditure, yet their exceptional margins cannot be treated as representative of the broader Serbian private sector.

Manufacturing occupied second place with a net profit of RSD183.4bn, or around €1.5bn. Its earnings increased by 8 per cent, supported both by stronger results among profitable companies and a reduction in losses among weaker operators.

The comparison with mining is revealing. Manufacturing employs more than 395,000 workers and generates approximately six times as much revenue as the mining sector, but its net margin is only 3.5 per cent. Serbian manufacturers therefore carry a much larger share of employment, supplier development and regional economic activity while retaining a fraction of the profit generated per euro of revenue in mining.

Manufacturers remain exposed to imported components, electricity and gas prices, wage pressures, transport costs and the economic cycle in the European Union. Many operate as suppliers or assembly facilities within foreign corporate groups, limiting their pricing power and leaving margins dependent on production volumes, transfer-pricing structures and the allocation of costs between Serbian subsidiaries and their parent companies.

The automotive industry reflects this structure. Stellantis’s Kragujevac operation recorded a profit of approximately RSD3.7bn, or €31.5mn, while the value of vehicle exports exceeded €1.8bn. The Serbian plant’s net earnings amounted to only about 2 per cent of the manufacturing sector’s total profit despite its substantial contribution to exports.

The difference between export value and retained profit is characteristic of assembly-based manufacturing. Imported parts account for a significant share of production value, while wages, logistics, energy, tooling and model-development costs consume much of the remaining margin. The Kragujevac plant’s importance lies not only in its reported profit but in its employment, supplier network, export capacity and potential role in the European electric-vehicle value chain.

Serbia’s policy challenge is to increase the share of value retained domestically. Higher local content, engineering functions, research and development, industrial services and locally sourced components would matter more for long-term productivity than the gross export value of finished vehicles. The same argument applies across machinery, electrical equipment, rubber, plastics and other manufacturing industries dominated by foreign investment.

Retail and wholesale trade remained the third-largest source of corporate earnings, with net profit of RSD174.6bn, or just under €1.5bn. Unlike mining and manufacturing, however, trade recorded a deterioration. Profit fell by almost 16 per cent, and the sector’s net margin declined to 2.7 per cent.

Several forces contributed to the reversal. The moderation of inflation reduced the nominal boost to turnover that retailers had experienced during the previous price shock. Government restrictions on retail margins, introduced in September 2025, further reduced the room available to adjust prices. Profitable trading companies reported a 6 per cent decline in earnings, while losses among unprofitable businesses increased by 39 per cent.

With more than 246,000 employees, trade is one of Serbia’s largest private-sector employers. Its falling profitability therefore carries broader implications than a simple decline in shareholder returns. Persistently compressed margins can reduce investment in distribution centres, digital sales platforms, store networks and supply-chain modernisation. Smaller domestic traders are especially vulnerable because they lack the purchasing power, logistics scale and financing access available to international retail groups.

Construction also lost momentum. The sector reported net profit of RSD99bn, but this was 11 per cent lower than in the previous year. The decline reflects the cyclical nature of the industry and the uneven transition between completed infrastructure and property projects and the next wave of investment.

Serbia continues to support substantial transport, energy, real-estate and Expo-related construction programmes, but large nominal investment volumes do not automatically translate into stronger sector profitability. Material costs, labour shortages, delayed payments, contract-price adjustments and reliance on subcontracting can leave contractors with limited margins even during periods of intense building activity.

Information and communications moved in the opposite direction. Sector profit increased by 34 per cent to RSD89.5bn, confirming technology and digital services as one of the fastest-growing components of the Serbian economy.

The sector benefits from high value added, comparatively low physical-capital requirements and direct access to international clients. It also supports Serbia’s highest salaries. The average net salary for programmers reached RSD295,418 in May, around four times the average wage in personal-service activities.

Technology earnings are not entirely insulated from global conditions. Serbian companies face weaker demand from some European customers, intense competition for skilled employees and pressure from automation and artificial intelligence. Even so, the sector’s profit trajectory indicates that Serbia’s export model is gradually broadening beyond physical commodities and industrial assembly.

The deeper divide in the corporate data is between tradable sectors—those able to sell goods and services abroad—and activities tied primarily to domestic demand. Tradable industries generated only 37.8 per cent of total business revenue but accounted for approximately 45 per cent of aggregate net profit. Their earnings rose by 24.4 per cent, compared with growth of only 2 per cent among non-tradable sectors.

This shift strengthens Serbia’s external position because profitable exporters generate foreign-currency revenue, support the current account and provide a base for reinvestment. Yet the composition matters. An export model led by copper, gold and foreign-owned manufacturing remains exposed to commodity cycles, decisions taken at multinational headquarters and changes in European industrial demand.

A more durable improvement would require productivity growth among domestic manufacturers and service providers, deeper integration of Serbian suppliers into foreign-owned industrial systems and greater investment in processing, engineering and technology. Serbia currently captures substantial value from resource extraction, but a larger share could be retained through refining, advanced materials, equipment maintenance, environmental services and industrial research.

The weakest part of the corporate landscape remains the traditional public-enterprise sector. Public companies recorded an aggregate net loss of RSD11.75bn, close to €100mn, compared with a loss of about RSD9bn a year earlier. Operating profit fell from RSD9.8bn to RSD5.5bn, while financing and other losses increased by a combined RSD5.5bn.

Revenue among approximately 530 registered public enterprises rose by only 1.4 per cent, while expenditure increased by 2.6 per cent. Public construction companies made the largest negative contribution, recording a combined loss of RSD22.7bn, almost 90 per cent more than in the previous year.

Elektroprivreda Srbije, which has operated as a joint-stock company rather than a traditional public enterprise since its legal transformation, provided an important counterweight with profit of approximately RSD42bn. Its result demonstrates how strongly Serbia’s state-owned corporate balance depends on a small number of large energy and infrastructure businesses.

The accumulated loss carried by public enterprises reached RSD352bn, or more than €3bn. More concerning is the position of 94 public companies whose liabilities exceeded the value of their assets. Their loss above capital totalled approximately RSD71bn, equivalent to more than €600mn.

These companies represent a contingent fiscal risk. Their liabilities may not immediately appear as central-government debt, but persistent insolvency can eventually require subsidies, state guarantees, debt restructuring or assumption of obligations by municipalities and the national budget. The financial cost is compounded by weaker service quality and underinvestment in water, district heating, local infrastructure and utility networks.

The 2025 results therefore describe an economy that is profitable in aggregate but increasingly differentiated. Serbia’s strongest exporters have accumulated considerable earnings and capital, while mining has become an outsized contributor to national profit. Manufacturing supports far more employment but operates on thin margins. Technology continues to advance, trade and construction are losing momentum, and parts of the public sector remain structurally insolvent.

The central issue is no longer whether Serbian companies can generate profit. They clearly can. The more important question is whether exceptional earnings from copper, gold, banking and a limited number of large exporters can be converted into a wider base of productive investment, stronger domestic suppliers and more resilient corporate balance sheets. Without that transition, the country’s impressive €8bn profit figure will continue to depend disproportionately on a small group of companies whose commercial strength is not yet replicated across the rest of the economy.

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