Serbia’s export performance strengthened during the first five months of 2026, narrowing the trade deficit despite continuing uncertainty in European industry and a first-quarter survey in which many exporters reported weak quarter-on-quarter results.
Goods exports reached €14.70bn during January-May, an increase of 7.7% from the same period of 2025. Imports rose by only 1.0% to €17.68bn, reducing the trade deficit by 22.9% to approximately €2.98bn. Export coverage of imports improved from 77.9% to 83.1%.
The improvement is stronger than the corporate survey initially suggested. Only 19% of exporters reported higher shipments in the first quarter compared with the final quarter of 2025, while around one-third recorded a decline. Companies whose exports increased achieved an average gain of 37%, while those experiencing contraction reported an average decline of approximately 35%.
The difference is partly methodological. The survey compares Q1 with Q4, when annual order completions and seasonal shipments can be unusually high. Official trade data compare the first five months of 2026 with the corresponding period a year earlier and are weighted by the actual value of goods crossing the border. A large exporter can therefore lift national trade even when many smaller companies report stagnant business.
Manufacturing remained the core of the export recovery. Serbia’s export base now extends beyond traditional agricultural and basic-metal shipments to include automotive components, electrical equipment, machinery, rubber products, pharmaceuticals and processed food. Mining and metals continue to play a large role through Serbia Zijin Copper, Zijin Mining’s Čukaru Peki operation, HBIS Serbia and other industrial producers.
The European Union accounted for 58.8% of Serbia’s total external trade during January-May. This provides market scale but keeps Serbia closely exposed to industrial demand in Germany, Italy, Central Europe and neighbouring EU states. Weak European manufacturing can quickly affect affect orders for Serbian automotive, electrical and metal suppliers.
CEFTA markets offer a different profile. Serbia generated an approximately €1.28bn goods surplus with CEFTA during the first five months, supported by cereals, beverages, pharmaceutical products, road vehicles and electrical equipment. The export-to-import ratio exceeded 300%, reinforcing Serbia’s role as the Western Balkans’ principal industrial and consumer-goods supplier.
Corporate expectations for Q2 were constructive. Around 34% of exporters anticipated higher shipments, with an average expected increase of 27%. Only 11% forecast a decline. Energy exporters showed the highest confidence, followed by companies in metals, construction, public utilities, textiles and agriculture.
The external position is also supported by services, particularly information technology, professional services, transport and tourism. ICT exports have continued to expand from an already high base, while foreign tourism grew during the spring. These flows help offset the structural goods deficit.
Foreign direct investment has slowed, however. Gross FDI inflows amounted to approximately €893m during January-May, with net inflows of €596m after Serbian investment abroad. This was sufficient to cover the current-account deficit, but it remained below the pace recorded during previous investment cycles. Manufacturing attracted approximately 63.9% of reported Q1 FDI, confirming that industrial capacity remains the principal channel through which foreign capital enters the export economy.
The narrowing trade deficit improves Serbia’s external financing profile and reduces some pressure on the current account. Export growth remains dependent on imported equipment and intermediates, however, limiting the domestic value retained from every euro of foreign sales. Serbia’s next export phase rests on raising local content within industries that have already demonstrated access to European and regional markets.
