The IT industry in Serbia and broader markets is entering 2026 with more caution compared to the optimism that characterised the previous years. After a period of rapid expansion, many companies are now facing a cooling of demand, slower investment growth and greater market pressure as global macroeconomic conditions tighten and clients become more selective in their technology spending.
One of the key factors shaping this sentiment is the global slowdown in investment growth, particularly from Western markets where many IT service providers and outsourcing companies in Serbia and the region derive a substantial share of their revenue. Companies that experienced rapid growth in recent years without a clearly sustainable business model or heavy reliance on a single category of clients — especially in outsourcing — are now feeling the impact of a market that demands measurable return on investment and value delivery.
According to Saša Popović, founder and CEO of IT firm Vega, a combination of economic and geopolitical challenges will make 2026 more demanding. Interest rates and inflation dynamics, ongoing geopolitical uncertainty, and evolving regulatory environments — especially around artificial intelligence, data privacy and cybersecurity — are all contributing to a more constrained operating environment for technology companies. This tightening means that IT spending is expected to grow more slowly than in recent years, and clients are prioritising projects with clear, near-term returns.
Another factor highlighted is the current surge in investment into artificial intelligence. While AI remains a central theme of technology spending, there are concerns about the sustainability of the “AI investment bubble” created by heavy spending in 2025. If this bubble were to deflate or enter a consolidation phase, investment could slow further as capital reallocates and investors reassess risk and returns. This dynamic may add to the challenges faced by IT firms seeking funding or contract growth in 2026.
Despite these headwinds, some growth is still anticipated. On Western markets, IT spending growth of around 10% in 2026 is expected, meaning there will still be opportunities for companies capable of delivering high-quality work and capturing a share of available projects. Firms that focus on demonstrating measurable value, delivering on time and expanding into diverse markets may find success even amid tighter conditions.
In summary, 2026 is expected to be more challenging for the IT sector due to slower investment growth, higher expectations around return on technology spending, geopolitical and regulatory pressures, and potential cooling of certain high-growth segments like AI. However, opportunities remain for companies that can adapt, focus on value delivery and compete effectively in a more disciplined market environment.
