Serbia’s consumer economy remained resilient during the opening months of 2026. Retail turnover increased 8.3% year on year in April at current prices and 5.6% at constant prices, indicating that most of the growth came from higher sales volumes rather than inflation alone.
Across January-April, nominal retail turnover increased 9%, while real turnover grew 7.9%. The result aligns with rising household incomes: average net salaries reached RSD121,805 in April, representing real annual growth of 7.9%.
Non-food products excluding motor fuel generated the strongest cumulative retail performance, with turnover increasing 10.8%. Food, beverages and tobacco grew 7%, while motor-fuel turnover rose 10.5%.
April produced a different ranking. Motor-fuel turnover increased 18.6% year on year, compared with growth of 6.9%for non-food products and 5.8% for food, beverages and tobacco. Fuel prices contributed to the nominal increase, although higher road mobility and commercial transport demand may also have played a role.
Seasonally adjusted real retail activity declined 6.9% from March, following a strong 8.8% monthly increase in March. The April fall is better interpreted as a correction after an unusually strong month than as evidence of a reversal. Retail turnover remained 4.8% higher than in April 2025 on a seasonally adjusted basis.
Growth was geographically broad. Real turnover increased 8.2% in northern Serbia and 7.2% in southern Serbiaduring January-April. The difference was moderate, suggesting that consumer growth was not confined to Belgrade and Vojvodina.
The agricultural market moved in the opposite direction. The nominal value of sales and purchases of agricultural, forestry and fishing products fell 3.2% year on year in April. Across the first four months, nominal turnover decreased 7%, while real turnover declined 4.5%.
The decline was widespread across product categories. Cereal turnover fell 14.6%, industrial crops 15.1%, fodder crops 46.4%, fruit and grapes 5.9%, processed fruit and grape products 13.2%, livestock and poultry 6.3%, and milk and dairy products 8.9%.
Egg turnover increased 42%, honey and wax more than doubled, fish rose 3.1%, and other products increased 20.3%. These gains were not large enough to compensate for the contraction in the main agricultural categories.
Regional agricultural results were also weak. Vojvodina recorded a 5.8% decline, Šumadija and Western Serbia 3%, Southern and Eastern Serbia 10.4%, and the Belgrade region 22.8%.
The combination of strong retail demand and declining agricultural market turnover suggests that consumer expansion is not being matched by growth in domestically marketed agricultural products. Retailers and processors may be relying more heavily on imports, inventories or alternative procurement channels.
For food processors, the situation creates mixed pressures. Strong consumer demand supports revenue, but lower formal agricultural turnover can complicate raw-material procurement and plant utilisation. Companies with vertically integrated supply chains are better positioned than processors dependent on spot purchases.
Serbia’s household economy entered the second quarter with real consumption growth intact. The weakness lies upstream, where agricultural market flows, milk, livestock and crop turnover are contracting despite stronger retail spending.
