Serbia’s tourism and hospitality companies recorded the sharpest first-quarter deterioration in turnover, but subsequent official data confirm that the expected spring recovery began to materialise.
Around 57% of tourism and hospitality respondents reported lower turnover in Q1 compared with the final quarter of 2025. Only 10% achieved growth. For Q2, the position reversed: 55% expected higher turnover, the strongest reading of any surveyed sector, while only 10% anticipated a further decline.
The initial weakness was largely seasonal. The fourth quarter includes holiday travel, corporate events and the beginning of the mountain-ski season. The first quarter contains a quieter period after January, while Q2 benefits from Easter travel, conferences, city tourism, spas and the start of summer demand.
By May, Serbia had registered approximately 470,400 tourist arrivals, an increase of 7.4% year on year. Overnight stays rose by 5.5% to about 1.21m. Foreign overnight stays increased by 9.3%, considerably faster than the 2.2% growth recorded for domestic visitors.
During January-May, arrivals increased by 7.9% to approximately 1.72m, while overnight stays rose by 5.7% to 4.84m. Domestic visitors still generated slightly more than half of overnight stays, but foreign demand produced the stronger marginal growth.
Belgrade remained the leading urban destination, followed by Novi Sad and Niš. Vrnjačka Banja, Sokobanja and Banja Vrdnik led spa tourism, while Zlatibor, Kopaonik and Tara remained the principal mountain centres. Visitors from Türkiye, Russia and Bosnia and Herzegovina generated the largest foreign overnight volumes in May.
The demand picture is stronger than the first-quarter survey alone suggests. Profitability remains less certain. Hotels and restaurants face rising wage costs, persistent shortages of cooks and waiters, higher food prices and the need for ongoing refurbishment. The sector must also absorb the operating costs associated with digital booking platforms and shorter reservation windows.
Serbia’s tourism model is increasingly diversified between Belgrade city breaks, regional conferences, spa and wellness investment, mountain apartments and transit tourism. That diversity reduces dependence on a single season but creates different capital structures. Urban hotels rely more heavily on corporate and foreign demand, while mountain and spa projects often depend on domestic purchasing power and real-estate-led development.
The Q2 recovery therefore represents more than a mechanical seasonal rise. Stronger foreign demand is adding revenue to a market still supported by domestic travel. Hotel owners able to maintain staffing and control operating costs are entering the summer from a better position than the Q1 survey implied.
