Serbia’s economic growth in 2025 is expected to be lower than initially forecast, likely reaching around 2–2.5%, according to Saša Ranđelović, executive editor of the Quarterly Monitor at the University of Belgrade’s Faculty of Economics. In the first half of the year, Serbia recorded a growth rate of 2.1%, slightly below the Central and Eastern European average of 2.4%.
Ranđelović noted that the growth in the second quarter was primarily driven by private and public consumption, while investments declined and net exports contributed negatively. The construction sector experienced the largest contraction, whereas other sectors continued to grow at varying rates.
On the balance of payments, net exports of services, especially tourism, decreased, and remittance inflows also fell, leading to a reduced surplus. Foreign direct investment inflows were lower than the current account deficit.
Fiscal flows showed continued budget revenue growth, but at a slower pace than planned, prompting the Serbian government to tighten control over public spending. As a result, the fiscal deficit for the first seven months remained low, around 0.1% of GDP, or under six billion dinars.
Ranđelović concluded that while seasonal expenditure increases are expected in the second half of the year, it is realistic for Serbia to keep its fiscal deficit within the planned limit of 3% of GDP for 2025.
